Value
5.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.5 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.57
CAMT · Why this verdict
Why Camtek (CAMT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Camtek is a semiconductor equipment maker with 28.8% upside to target and 48% analyst upside, but momentum is weak, growth and peer rank are poor, and earnings arrive in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Camtek beat EPS in 3 of 3 reported quarters, but the average surprise is only about 1.7% and growth scores 1.6 out of 10. Earnings | Growth score rises above 4. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSmall surprises suggest results are merely meeting lowered expectations. | ||
Forward P/E is 23.0x with a PEG of 1.63, not cheap given weak growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E drops below 20x as earnings grow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSemiconductor equipment demand is volatile. | ||
Analyst upside is 48% and the adjusted target implies 28.8% upside, with a reward-to-risk of 1.92. Sentiment breakdown | Price moves toward the target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCoverage is light, which dampens the signal. | ||
Momentum scores 1.7 with RSI at 24, falling on-balance volume, and a 7.3% gap down. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 4.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI of 24 is capitulation territory and often marks a bottom. | ||
Camtek beat EPS in 3 of 3 reported quarters, but the average surprise is only about 1.7% and growth scores 1.6 out of 10.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Growth score rises above 4.
CounterSmall surprises suggest results are merely meeting lowered expectations.
Forward P/E is 23.0x with a PEG of 1.63, not cheap given weak growth.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E drops below 20x as earnings grow.
CounterSemiconductor equipment demand is volatile.
Analyst upside is 48% and the adjusted target implies 28.8% upside, with a reward-to-risk of 1.92.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the target.
CounterCoverage is light, which dampens the signal.
Momentum scores 1.7 with RSI at 24, falling on-balance volume, and a 7.3% gap down.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5.
CounterRSI of 24 is capitulation territory and often marks a bottom.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 6.2 |
| Op margin | 9.0 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 83%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,096,205 (0.108% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 0.4 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 92%
- ▸Above max pain $50
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.1 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.92
Upside
+58.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -57% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.7, Technical at 6.6, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.5, Growth at 1.6, and Peer rank at 2.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Upside
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 10% from the current 28.8%.
- P2Capitulation Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 2.5 for 3 consecutive months.
- P3Earnings Beats Weak Growth
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise falls below 0%.
- P4Fair Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 28x.