Value
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 6.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.25
CAH · Why this verdict
Why Cardinal Health (CAH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cardinal Health has strong cash conversion and growth, but quality is below the floor, the price is above the analyst target, and momentum is weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 3.6 out of 10, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat. Bear case | Quality score recovers above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterDistribution is a scale business with thin but stable margins; cash conversion is excellent. | ||
Free cash flow is about 277% of net income, a strong cash-generation sign. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income stays above 100%. | →Stable |
| CounterDistributor cash flow swings with working capital and can reverse sharply. | ||
The price is above the analyst target of $246.12 (upside of -1.7%). Warnings | Targets get raised as growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth scores 7.0 and sentiment is positive, so targets may follow price higher. | ||
Momentum scores 3.9 with falling on-balance volume, though price is above the 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 4.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNotable insider selling of about $59.6M adds to the weak technical picture. | ||
Quality scores 3.6 out of 10, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0.
CounterDistribution is a scale business with thin but stable margins; cash conversion is excellent.
Free cash flow is about 277% of net income, a strong cash-generation sign.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income stays above 100%.
CounterDistributor cash flow swings with working capital and can reverse sharply.
The price is above the analyst target of $246.12 (upside of -1.7%).
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Targets get raised as growth continues.
CounterGrowth scores 7.0 and sentiment is positive, so targets may follow price higher.
Momentum scores 3.9 with falling on-balance volume, though price is above the 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 4.5.
CounterNotable insider selling of about $59.6M adds to the weak technical picture.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 3.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 277% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $59,552,442 (0.101% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| put call | 8.1 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $185
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.32
Upside
-3.0%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.3=NEGATIVE outcome against Catalyst at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -0.32.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.3, Growth at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.5, Quality at 3.6, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.6 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income falls below 100% from the current 277%.
- P3Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Weak Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.0 from the current 3.9.