Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
- ▸Attractively valued
BY · Why this verdict
Why Byline Bancorp (BY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters at an average positive surprise of 11%, demonstrating a durable pattern of delivering results that consistently exceed expectations. Earnings | EPS continues to exceed consensus estimates over the next 2 quarters, sustaining the four-quarter beat streak through the July reporting event. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the next earnings event 37 days out and shares near the 52-week high, a single miss would land at a technically overextended price point, potentially triggering a disproportionate drawdown with almost no upside buffer to absorb the blow. | ||
At approximately 10x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.35 and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9, the stock is attractively priced for a regional bank with demonstrated earnings reliability. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple re-rates toward 13x over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the consistency of earnings delivery, driving a meaningful valuation uplift. | →Stable |
| CounterThe absence of a competitive moat and below-average quality scores relative to the broader financial sector suggest the discount may reflect a permanently lower return ceiling, limiting the scope of any sustained re-rating. | ||
A golden cross is in place, shares trade above all major moving averages with rising volume accumulation, and the momentum score is well above the minimum threshold, placing this in a technically confirmed uptrend. Engine gate (passed) | The stock holds above the 200-day moving average through the next earnings event, with MACD remaining in a bullish configuration. | →Stable |
| CounterAt RSI 66 and within 2.3% of the 52-week high, the trend is mature; any rotation or earnings disappointment could flip accumulation to distribution rapidly, leaving the technical setup fragile at these levels. | ||
With shares just 0.3% below technical resistance and a risk/reward ratio of 0.08-to-1, the current entry does not offer sufficient upside to justify the downside — the asymmetry has flipped negative and no investment edge has been identified. Price targets | A pullback of more than 7% from resistance, or a fundamental catalyst that revises the take-profit level significantly higher, would be needed to restore an investable setup. | →Stable |
| CounterA clean insider signal, clear event calendar, and strong Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 may prevent a meaningful drawdown, leaving the stock rangebound near resistance and preventing a re-entry opportunity from materializing. | ||
The bank has beaten analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters at an average positive surprise of 11%, demonstrating a durable pattern of delivering results that consistently exceed expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to exceed consensus estimates over the next 2 quarters, sustaining the four-quarter beat streak through the July reporting event.
CounterWith the next earnings event 37 days out and shares near the 52-week high, a single miss would land at a technically overextended price point, potentially triggering a disproportionate drawdown with almost no upside buffer to absorb the blow.
At approximately 10x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.35 and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9, the stock is attractively priced for a regional bank with demonstrated earnings reliability.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple re-rates toward 13x over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the consistency of earnings delivery, driving a meaningful valuation uplift.
CounterThe absence of a competitive moat and below-average quality scores relative to the broader financial sector suggest the discount may reflect a permanently lower return ceiling, limiting the scope of any sustained re-rating.
A golden cross is in place, shares trade above all major moving averages with rising volume accumulation, and the momentum score is well above the minimum threshold, placing this in a technically confirmed uptrend.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- The stock holds above the 200-day moving average through the next earnings event, with MACD remaining in a bullish configuration.
CounterAt RSI 66 and within 2.3% of the 52-week high, the trend is mature; any rotation or earnings disappointment could flip accumulation to distribution rapidly, leaving the technical setup fragile at these levels.
With shares just 0.3% below technical resistance and a risk/reward ratio of 0.08-to-1, the current entry does not offer sufficient upside to justify the downside — the asymmetry has flipped negative and no investment edge has been identified.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback of more than 7% from resistance, or a fundamental catalyst that revises the take-profit level significantly higher, would be needed to restore an investable setup.
CounterA clean insider signal, clear event calendar, and strong Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 may prevent a meaningful drawdown, leaving the stock rangebound near resistance and preventing a re-entry opportunity from materializing.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Byline Bancorp trades at roughly 10x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.35 and has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging 11% above estimates, offering an attractively priced regional bank franchise for its demonstrated consistency. However, shares sit just 0.3% below technical resistance with a risk/reward of 0.08-to-1 — deeply unfavorable — making the current level a hold rather than a new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 7.9 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $3,197 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
- ▸High IV: 89%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 118.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.15
Upside
-13.1%
Downside
11.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 20d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.7; weakest: Technical at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Momentum at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 4.7, Insider at 5.0, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 14x without a concurrent upward revision to earnings estimates, signaling a valuation that has become stretched.
- P3Established Technical Uptrend
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive sessions.
- P4Exhausted Near Term Risk Reward
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit level exceeds 10% — whether via a price pullback or a fundamentally driven target revision — restoring a viable risk/reward geometry.