Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.73
- ▸Attractively valued
BY · Why this verdict
Why Byline Bancorp (BY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Byline Bancorp is a regional bank with a perfect earnings-beat streak and cheap valuation, but the stock has already reached the analyst target and insiders are selling heavily, leaving little room to add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Byline has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 11.9%, showing consistent execution. Earnings | EPS keeps beating consensus over the next 12 months, with the average surprise staying positive. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats against low estimates can flatter results; bank earnings are sensitive to rate cuts and credit costs that could reverse the streak. | ||
The shares trade at a forward P/E of about 10.7x with a PEG of 0.73, which the data labels attractively valued for a regional bank. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth supports the multiple so forward P/E stays under 12x as the price holds. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks often deserve low multiples; a PEG of 0.73 relies on growth estimates that look soft given weak revenue growth scores. | ||
The price is already above the analyst target (upside of -1.0%), so the stock offers no cushion and the position is a hold rather than an add. Warnings | The stock consolidates near the target while analysts raise targets as earnings grow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBank targets tend to lag; strong beats could lift targets and extend the rally well past current levels. | ||
Insiders sold about $24.3M in 90 days (1.41% of market cap) versus only about $60K of buying, a bearish signal for a small-cap bank. Insider breakdown | Insider selling fades and net selling drops below 0.5% of market cap over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge sales may be pre-planned diversification after a strong run and say little about operations. | ||
Byline has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 11.9%, showing consistent execution.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS keeps beating consensus over the next 12 months, with the average surprise staying positive.
CounterBeats against low estimates can flatter results; bank earnings are sensitive to rate cuts and credit costs that could reverse the streak.
The shares trade at a forward P/E of about 10.7x with a PEG of 0.73, which the data labels attractively valued for a regional bank.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth supports the multiple so forward P/E stays under 12x as the price holds.
CounterRegional banks often deserve low multiples; a PEG of 0.73 relies on growth estimates that look soft given weak revenue growth scores.
The price is already above the analyst target (upside of -1.0%), so the stock offers no cushion and the position is a hold rather than an add.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The stock consolidates near the target while analysts raise targets as earnings grow.
CounterBank targets tend to lag; strong beats could lift targets and extend the rally well past current levels.
Insiders sold about $24.3M in 90 days (1.41% of market cap) versus only about $60K of buying, a bearish signal for a small-cap bank.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling fades and net selling drops below 0.5% of market cap over the next 12 months.
CounterLarge sales may be pre-planned diversification after a strong run and say little about operations.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 4.9 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 4.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $24,895,211 (1.448% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.4 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:1.45%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.15
Upside
-1.0%
Downside
6.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.6; weakest: Growth at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Momentum at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 4.2, Peer rank at 4.6, and Technical at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 13x without matching earnings growth.
- P3Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 2% of market cap in a 90-day window.