Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.38
- ▸Attractively valued
BY · Why this verdict
Why Byline Bancorp (BY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Byline Bancorp trades at roughly 10x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.35 and has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging 11% above estimates, offering an attractively priced regional bank franchise for its demonstrated consistency. However, shares sit just 0.3% below technical resistance with a risk/reward of 0.08-to-1 — deeply unfavorable — making the current level a hold rather than a new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters at an average positive surprise of 11%, demonstrating a durable pattern of delivering results that consistently exceed expectations. Earnings | EPS continues to exceed consensus estimates over the next 2 quarters, sustaining the four-quarter beat streak through the July reporting event. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith the next earnings event 37 days out and shares near the 52-week high, a single miss would land at a technically overextended price point, potentially triggering a disproportionate drawdown with almost no upside buffer to absorb the blow. | ||
At approximately 10x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.35 and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9, the stock is attractively priced for a regional bank with demonstrated earnings reliability. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple re-rates toward 13x over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the consistency of earnings delivery, driving a meaningful valuation uplift. | →Stable |
| CounterThe absence of a competitive moat and below-average quality scores relative to the broader financial sector suggest the discount may reflect a permanently lower return ceiling, limiting the scope of any sustained re-rating. | ||
A golden cross is in place, shares trade above all major moving averages with rising volume accumulation, and the momentum score is well above the minimum threshold, placing this in a technically confirmed uptrend. Engine gate (passed) | The stock holds above the 200-day moving average through the next earnings event, with MACD remaining in a bullish configuration. | →Stable |
| CounterAt RSI 66 and within 2.3% of the 52-week high, the trend is mature; any rotation or earnings disappointment could flip accumulation to distribution rapidly, leaving the technical setup fragile at these levels. | ||
With shares just 0.3% below technical resistance and a risk/reward ratio of 0.08-to-1, the current entry does not offer sufficient upside to justify the downside — the asymmetry has flipped negative and no investment edge has been identified. Price targets | A pullback of more than 7% from resistance, or a fundamental catalyst that revises the take-profit level significantly higher, would be needed to restore an investable setup. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA clean insider signal, clear event calendar, and strong Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 may prevent a meaningful drawdown, leaving the stock rangebound near resistance and preventing a re-entry opportunity from materializing. | ||
The bank has beaten analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters at an average positive surprise of 11%, demonstrating a durable pattern of delivering results that consistently exceed expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to exceed consensus estimates over the next 2 quarters, sustaining the four-quarter beat streak through the July reporting event.
CounterWith the next earnings event 37 days out and shares near the 52-week high, a single miss would land at a technically overextended price point, potentially triggering a disproportionate drawdown with almost no upside buffer to absorb the blow.
At approximately 10x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.35 and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9, the stock is attractively priced for a regional bank with demonstrated earnings reliability.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple re-rates toward 13x over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the consistency of earnings delivery, driving a meaningful valuation uplift.
CounterThe absence of a competitive moat and below-average quality scores relative to the broader financial sector suggest the discount may reflect a permanently lower return ceiling, limiting the scope of any sustained re-rating.
A golden cross is in place, shares trade above all major moving averages with rising volume accumulation, and the momentum score is well above the minimum threshold, placing this in a technically confirmed uptrend.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- The stock holds above the 200-day moving average through the next earnings event, with MACD remaining in a bullish configuration.
CounterAt RSI 66 and within 2.3% of the 52-week high, the trend is mature; any rotation or earnings disappointment could flip accumulation to distribution rapidly, leaving the technical setup fragile at these levels.
With shares just 0.3% below technical resistance and a risk/reward ratio of 0.08-to-1, the current entry does not offer sufficient upside to justify the downside — the asymmetry has flipped negative and no investment edge has been identified.
Tripped→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback of more than 7% from resistance, or a fundamental catalyst that revises the take-profit level significantly higher, would be needed to restore an investable setup.
CounterA clean insider signal, clear event calendar, and strong Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 may prevent a meaningful drawdown, leaving the stock rangebound near resistance and preventing a re-entry opportunity from materializing.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 7.9 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.6 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $3,197 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 7.6 |
| beta | 8.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $37.87 has reached target $38.10. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.58
Upside
-11.3%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $37.87 has reached target $38.10. No upside to wait for. The 10-dimension scores remain Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3, Value at 7.6, and Growth at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 3.9, Technical at 5.1, and Peer rank at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.58 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 14x without a concurrent upward revision to earnings estimates, signaling a valuation that has become stretched.
- P3Established Technical Uptrend
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive sessions.
- P4Exhausted Near Term Risk RewardTripped
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit level exceeds 10% — whether via a price pullback or a fundamentally driven target revision — restoring a viable risk/reward geometry.