Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.30
BV · Why this verdict
Why BrightView Holdings (BV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has missed consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average shortfall running roughly 53% below the Street's forecast — a pattern that points to persistent optimism in analyst models that the business has consistently failed to meet. Earnings | The miss streak continues for at least two additional quarters, keeping the stock under sustained fundamental pressure before any reversal is credible. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter miss cycle can establish a deeply discounted expectations baseline from which even a modest positive surprise triggers a sharp recovery; with valuation now extremely compressed, the next beat could carry outsized upside. | ||
Free cash flow runs approximately 88% below reported net income — effectively negative — indicating that the profitability shown on the income statement is not converting into real cash available to shareholders, raising a material concern about earnings quality. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net income gap persists at more than 50% below net income for at least the next two reporting periods, reflecting a structural rather than transient cash drag. | →Stable |
| CounterService businesses can carry negative free cash flow through capex cycles or seasonal working-capital swings; if the gap narrows materially in the next two quarters, the earnings-quality concern may partially lift and remove a key bear argument. | ||
The stock's long-term technical structure has deteriorated into a death cross, and the 200-day moving average is declining at a rate of 3.2% over the past 30 days — confirming the stock is in a sustained downtrend rather than a short-term pullback. Engine gate (failed) | The downtrend persists for at least 12 months without a sustained recovery above the 200-day moving average, consistent with the pace of fundamental deterioration. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is described as improving even within the downtrend, and an RSI near 50 is neutral territory — early stabilization signals that can precede a trend reversal before the fundamental case has fully recovered. | ||
With 35% of the float sold short, the stock carries substantial overhang from bearish positioning that creates persistent selling pressure on any attempted price recovery, particularly within a confirmed downtrend where short sellers have been repeatedly rewarded. Risk breakdown | Short interest remains above 25% as fundamental improvement fails to materialize, capping any sustained price recovery over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 35% short interest also represents substantial fuel for a squeeze; even a modestly positive earnings surprise could trigger a sharp and rapid reversal that punishes those maintaining the short thesis. | ||
The company has missed consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average shortfall running roughly 53% below the Street's forecast — a pattern that points to persistent optimism in analyst models that the business has consistently failed to meet.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The miss streak continues for at least two additional quarters, keeping the stock under sustained fundamental pressure before any reversal is credible.
CounterA four-quarter miss cycle can establish a deeply discounted expectations baseline from which even a modest positive surprise triggers a sharp recovery; with valuation now extremely compressed, the next beat could carry outsized upside.
Free cash flow runs approximately 88% below reported net income — effectively negative — indicating that the profitability shown on the income statement is not converting into real cash available to shareholders, raising a material concern about earnings quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net income gap persists at more than 50% below net income for at least the next two reporting periods, reflecting a structural rather than transient cash drag.
CounterService businesses can carry negative free cash flow through capex cycles or seasonal working-capital swings; if the gap narrows materially in the next two quarters, the earnings-quality concern may partially lift and remove a key bear argument.
The stock's long-term technical structure has deteriorated into a death cross, and the 200-day moving average is declining at a rate of 3.2% over the past 30 days — confirming the stock is in a sustained downtrend rather than a short-term pullback.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The downtrend persists for at least 12 months without a sustained recovery above the 200-day moving average, consistent with the pace of fundamental deterioration.
CounterMACD is described as improving even within the downtrend, and an RSI near 50 is neutral territory — early stabilization signals that can precede a trend reversal before the fundamental case has fully recovered.
With 35% of the float sold short, the stock carries substantial overhang from bearish positioning that creates persistent selling pressure on any attempted price recovery, particularly within a confirmed downtrend where short sellers have been repeatedly rewarded.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest remains above 25% as fundamental improvement fails to materialize, capping any sustained price recovery over the next 12 months.
CounterA 35% short interest also represents substantial fuel for a squeeze; even a modestly positive earnings surprise could trigger a sharp and rapid reversal that punishes those maintaining the short thesis.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BrightView has missed consensus earnings estimates in each of its last four quarters by an average of 53%, while free cash flow runs deeply negative relative to reported net income and 35% of the float is sold short; combined with a confirmed technical downtrend below the 200-day moving average triggered by a death cross, the setup favors exiting the position ahead of any recovery that the fundamentals have not yet begun to support.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.9 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -88% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 9.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 77 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.3 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
- ▸High short interest: 39%
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.05
Upside
+0.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 6.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.9, Sentiment at 5.8, and Momentum at 5.6; the weakest are Quality at 2.4, Catalyst at 2.5, and Peer rank at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEPS exceeds analyst consensus in 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Negative Free Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifA golden cross forms (50-day MA crosses back above the 200-day MA) and the stock holds above the 200-day for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4High Short Interest Structural Pressure
Trip ifShort interest falls below 15% from the current 35% level over any 3-month period.