Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 5.6 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.35
- ▸Attractively valued
BV · Why this verdict
Why BrightView Holdings (BV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BV has insider buying and 13.5% upside to the analyst target, but earnings missed in all 4 recent quarters, free cash flow is deeply negative against net income and short interest is 33%, so quality is below the exit floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings missed estimates in all 4 recent quarters, including $0.17 vs $0.29 on 2026-08-04, with an average surprise of -60%. Last 4 quarters | Results continue to fall short of estimates, including the report due 2026-11-10. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates for the early-year quarters were near zero, so large percentage misses reflect tiny bases, and actuals were still positive in 3 of 4 quarters. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag at -115% FCF/NI, quality is 2.3/10 (below the 4.0 floor), and there is no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays negative relative to net income. | →Stable |
| CounterSeasonal working capital swings in services can distort a single-year FCF/NI ratio, and the current ratio score is a healthy 4.8. | ||
Short interest is high at 33%, and implied volatility is 92%, a sign of heavy skepticism. Key risks | Short interest stays above 25% through the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest can fuel a squeeze when the stock rallies, and the put/call ratio of 0.012 shows options traders leaning bullish. | ||
Insiders are buying: 2 purchases worth $562,400 (0.052% of market cap) in 90 days and no sales, with institutions accumulating. Insider | Insider purchases continue and insider signal stays bullish. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchase is small in market cap terms and insiders have bought before without the business improving. | ||
At $11.77 the stock is 13.5% below the $13.35 analyst target against 13.9% downside, so reward-to-risk is only 0.97. Upside pct | Upside to the target remains no larger than the downside. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst upside of 30% in the sentiment inputs and a recovery setup suggest a re-rating if earnings stabilize. | ||
Earnings missed estimates in all 4 recent quarters, including $0.17 vs $0.29 on 2026-08-04, with an average surprise of -60%.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Results continue to fall short of estimates, including the report due 2026-11-10.
CounterEstimates for the early-year quarters were near zero, so large percentage misses reflect tiny bases, and actuals were still positive in 3 of 4 quarters.
Earnings quality is a red flag at -115% FCF/NI, quality is 2.3/10 (below the 4.0 floor), and there is no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays negative relative to net income.
CounterSeasonal working capital swings in services can distort a single-year FCF/NI ratio, and the current ratio score is a healthy 4.8.
Short interest is high at 33%, and implied volatility is 92%, a sign of heavy skepticism.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest stays above 25% through the next two quarters.
CounterHigh short interest can fuel a squeeze when the stock rallies, and the put/call ratio of 0.012 shows options traders leaning bullish.
Insiders are buying: 2 purchases worth $562,400 (0.052% of market cap) in 90 days and no sales, with institutions accumulating.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider purchases continue and insider signal stays bullish.
CounterThe purchase is small in market cap terms and insiders have bought before without the business improving.
At $11.77 the stock is 13.5% below the $13.35 analyst target against 13.9% downside, so reward-to-risk is only 0.97.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Upside to the target remains no larger than the downside.
CounterAnalyst upside of 30% in the sentiment inputs and a recovery setup suggest a re-rating if earnings stabilize.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.2 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -115% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $562,400 (0.052% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 5.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
- ▸High short interest: 33%
- ▸High IV: 95%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.5>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.02
Upside
+13.4%
Downside
13.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.0<1.5@spot outcome against Insider at 7.5 and asymmetric R:R of 1.02.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Value at 7.1, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.3, Catalyst at 2.5, and Growth at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Negative Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF to net income conversion rises above 50% from current -115%.
- P3High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest falls below 15% from current 33%.
- P4Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsiders record net selling of more than $500,000 in 90 days.
- P5Balanced Reward To Risk
Trip ifPrice rises above the $13.35 analyst target.