Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.7 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
BULL · Why this verdict
Why Webull (BULL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BULL pairs 52% YoY growth, a wide moat and 85% upside to the analyst target with a confirmed downtrend (68% off its high) and heavy insider selling, so it remains a speculative hold with earnings due in 11 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is strong at 52% YoY, with growth scored 10.0/10 and an industry growth leader peer ranking. Growth breakdown | Revenue and earnings keep growing at 30% or better over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates are trending down, and the last four quarters included an in-line result and a miss, so growth may be decelerating. | ||
The business shows a wide economic moat and attractive valuation, with forward P/E of 16.7x and PEG of 0.06. Quality breakdown | Moat and valuation scores both stay at 7/10 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity (1.6/10) and return on assets (0.8/10) are very low, so the moat has not yet translated into capital returns. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, below the 200-day average with a -4.7%/30d slope, falling OBV and RSI at 24, and is 68% off its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price stays below its 200-day average until earnings on 2026-11-12. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI 24 with a volume surge and a near-lower-Bollinger position is a classic oversold-bounce setup that can reverse quickly. | ||
At $5.17 the price sits 85.0% below the $9.56 analyst target against 11.6% downside, a reward-to-risk of 7.3. Upside pct | Price rises toward the $9.56 target if earnings hold. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage has not kept up with the 68% drawdown, and targets may be cut after a weak report. | ||
Insiders are selling: 7 sales worth $3,109,049 (0.111% of market cap) in 90 days with no buys. Insider | Insider selling continues with no purchases over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe amount is only 0.111% of market cap and sales may be routine planned diversification rather than a view on the business. | ||
Growth is strong at 52% YoY, with growth scored 10.0/10 and an industry growth leader peer ranking.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings keep growing at 30% or better over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings estimates are trending down, and the last four quarters included an in-line result and a miss, so growth may be decelerating.
The business shows a wide economic moat and attractive valuation, with forward P/E of 16.7x and PEG of 0.06.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Moat and valuation scores both stay at 7/10 or higher.
CounterReturn on equity (1.6/10) and return on assets (0.8/10) are very low, so the moat has not yet translated into capital returns.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, below the 200-day average with a -4.7%/30d slope, falling OBV and RSI at 24, and is 68% off its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays below its 200-day average until earnings on 2026-11-12.
CounterRSI 24 with a volume surge and a near-lower-Bollinger position is a classic oversold-bounce setup that can reverse quickly.
At $5.17 the price sits 85.0% below the $9.56 analyst target against 11.6% downside, a reward-to-risk of 7.3.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price rises toward the $9.56 target if earnings hold.
CounterAnalyst coverage has not kept up with the 68% drawdown, and targets may be cut after a weak report.
Insiders are selling: 7 sales worth $3,109,049 (0.111% of market cap) in 90 days with no buys.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling continues with no purchases over the next 12 months.
CounterThe amount is only 0.111% of market cap and sales may be routine planned diversification rather than a view on the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.9 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 52% YoY
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 116%
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,109,049 (0.111% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.04
- ▸High IV: 85%
- ▸Above max pain $1
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:7.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
7.73
Upside
+83.9%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -65% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 7.73 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.2, and Value at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Insider at 4.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Wide Moat Attractive Valuation
Trip ifReturn on equity stays below 5% for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Oversold
Trip ifPrice rises above its 200-day average with the 30-day slope above 0%.
- P4Large Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $6.50, more than 25% under the current $9.56.
- P5Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $10M in 90 days.