Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
- ▸Attractively valued
BSX · Why this verdict
Why Boston Scientific (BSX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Boston Scientific is a high-quality medical device maker with 17% margins, a 13.3x forward P/E and insider buying of $9.3M, but it sits in a confirmed downtrend after a 60% drawdown with weak growth and a put/call ratio of 6.03.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Boston Scientific earns strong margins of 17% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and best-in-class margins versus peers. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 15% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterReturn on equity is scored only 4.8 out of 10 and a single-source supplier concentration is flagged as a risk to production. | ||
At a forward P/E of 13.3x and a PEG of 0.62, Boston Scientific is attractively valued after the drawdown. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 18x while earnings recover. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings growth is scored 0.0 and revenue growth 2.8, so the low PEG rests on forecasts that growth recovers. | ||
Insiders bought $9.3M over 90 days across 5 purchases with no sales, a BULLISH signal during the drawdown. Insider | Insiders keep net buying over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe purchases are only 0.015% of market cap, which is too small to indicate strong conviction. | ||
Price is below the 200-day average with a slope of -12.1% per 30 days and falling OBV, so the confirmed downtrend after a 60% drawdown has not turned. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day slope flattens toward 0% and price holds above the $39.04 stop level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 6.03 and negative news sentiment of -0.33 show the market still expects further downside. | ||
The analyst target of $46.12 sits 9.9% above the $41.98 price (22% analyst upside noted before haircut), giving risk-to-reward of 1.3. Analyst target | Price moves toward $46.12 while holding above the $39.04 stop. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterUpside is thin against 7.4% downside, and growth ranks near the bottom among peers (1.3 out of 10). | ||
Boston Scientific earns strong margins of 17% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and best-in-class margins versus peers.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 15% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months.
CounterReturn on equity is scored only 4.8 out of 10 and a single-source supplier concentration is flagged as a risk to production.
At a forward P/E of 13.3x and a PEG of 0.62, Boston Scientific is attractively valued after the drawdown.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 18x while earnings recover.
CounterEarnings growth is scored 0.0 and revenue growth 2.8, so the low PEG rests on forecasts that growth recovers.
Insiders bought $9.3M over 90 days across 5 purchases with no sales, a BULLISH signal during the drawdown.
↓DeterioratingInsider
- Expectation
- Insiders keep net buying over the next two quarters.
CounterThe purchases are only 0.015% of market cap, which is too small to indicate strong conviction.
Price is below the 200-day average with a slope of -12.1% per 30 days and falling OBV, so the confirmed downtrend after a 60% drawdown has not turned.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day slope flattens toward 0% and price holds above the $39.04 stop level.
CounterA put/call ratio of 6.03 and negative news sentiment of -0.33 show the market still expects further downside.
The analyst target of $46.12 sits 9.9% above the $41.98 price (22% analyst upside noted before haircut), giving risk-to-reward of 1.3.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price moves toward $46.12 while holding above the $39.04 stop.
CounterUpside is thin against 7.4% downside, and growth ranks near the bottom among peers (1.3 out of 10).
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 9.7 |
| Op margin | 8.1 |
| Net margin | 8.3 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $200,345 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 8.5 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $30
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -5.3% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:99d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.24
Upside
+2.3%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.5) with weak momentum (3.8)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -59% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Quality at 7.5; weakest: Growth at 1.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.3, and Value at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Technical at 3.8, and Momentum at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Device Margins
Trip ifNet margin falls below 12% from the current 17%.
- P2Attractive Valuation Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from the current 13.3x.
- P3Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsiders become net sellers of more than $5M over 90 days.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifShare price falls below $39.04, the stop level, from the current $41.98.
- P5Analyst Upside To 46
Trip ifConsensus analyst target falls below $42.00 from the current $46.12.