Value
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
BRUN · Why this verdict
Why Boost Run (BRUN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Boost Run is growing revenue at a rapid ~165% year-over-year clip, but that growth is levered heavily (debt-to-equity near 48.8x), momentum has turned negative below the engine's threshold, and the only reported quarter on file was a steep earnings miss, so the growth story currently outruns both the balance sheet and the price trend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Boost Run is growing revenue rapidly, with the growth notes citing roughly 165% year-over-year growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain elevated, staying in strong double-to-triple digits, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe growth is being financed with extremely high leverage, a debt-to-equity ratio near 48.8, which adds substantial financial risk to the growth story. | ||
Boost Run carries an extreme leverage penalty, with a debt-to-equity ratio of about 48.8 flagged as a material drag on the risk profile. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline meaningfully from the current ~48.8x level over the next 12 months for the leverage risk to ease. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRapid growth of roughly 165% year over year could allow the company to delever quickly if it translates into cash flow, even from today's elevated debt levels. | ||
Momentum has turned negative, registering at 3.7 against the engine's 4.5 threshold, with falling on-balance volume pointing to distribution even though the stock still trades above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should recover back above the 4.5 threshold over the next 12 months for the negative-momentum concern to lift. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOptions positioning is heavily skewed toward calls, with a put/call ratio of just 0.114, a bullish signal that runs counter to the negative price momentum reading. | ||
Boost Run's only reported quarter on record shows a large earnings miss, with a surprise of about -149%, and there is no confirmed date yet for the next report. Earnings | The next reported quarter, once scheduled, should deliver at least an in-line result, with EPS surprise at or above 0%. | →Stable |
| CounterDespite the poor single data point on earnings, analysts still assign meaningful implied upside of about 21% to the shares. | ||
Boost Run is growing revenue rapidly, with the growth notes citing roughly 165% year-over-year growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain elevated, staying in strong double-to-triple digits, over the next 12 months.
CounterThe growth is being financed with extremely high leverage, a debt-to-equity ratio near 48.8, which adds substantial financial risk to the growth story.
Boost Run carries an extreme leverage penalty, with a debt-to-equity ratio of about 48.8 flagged as a material drag on the risk profile.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline meaningfully from the current ~48.8x level over the next 12 months for the leverage risk to ease.
CounterRapid growth of roughly 165% year over year could allow the company to delever quickly if it translates into cash flow, even from today's elevated debt levels.
Momentum has turned negative, registering at 3.7 against the engine's 4.5 threshold, with falling on-balance volume pointing to distribution even though the stock still trades above its 200-day moving average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover back above the 4.5 threshold over the next 12 months for the negative-momentum concern to lift.
CounterOptions positioning is heavily skewed toward calls, with a put/call ratio of just 0.114, a bullish signal that runs counter to the negative price momentum reading.
Boost Run's only reported quarter on record shows a large earnings miss, with a surprise of about -149%, and there is no confirmed date yet for the next report.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next reported quarter, once scheduled, should deliver at least an in-line result, with EPS surprise at or above 0%.
CounterDespite the poor single data point on earnings, analysts still assign meaningful implied upside of about 21% to the shares.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.2 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 165% YoY
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.7 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 20)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.4 |
| quality rank | 0.2 |
| growth rank | 9.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.15
- ▸High IV: 166%
Catalyst
2.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.84
Upside
+27.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.84.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 1.8, Catalyst at 2.2, and Peer rank at 2.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 50% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Extreme Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity falls below 20x from the current ~48.8x level.
- P3Negative Momentum Below Threshold
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 6.0, clearing well past the 4.5 threshold and confirming a reversal from the current negative reading.
- P4Single Quarter Earnings Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 0% at the next reported quarter, reversing the current single-quarter miss.