Value
5.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
BRKR · Why this verdict
Why Bruker (BRKR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bruker has a 9/9 Piotroski score and a record of beating earnings (3 of 4 quarters, average surprise 22.8%), but weak growth, 16% short interest and a price already above the analyst target leave limited upside going into earnings in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 shows improving fundamentals even though margins are moderate (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 2.1%). Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher and FCF margin rises above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe same data notes no competitive moat and low return on equity and net margin components (0.0 out of 10), so the high score may not translate into profit. | ||
Bruker beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 22.8%, showing consistent execution against expectations. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive at the 2026-11-04 report and the following quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOne quarter missed by 9.8%, guidance is unknown, and earnings in 3 days is a binary event with 86% implied volatility. | ||
Revenue growth is weak (component score 3.8) and growth ranks low among peers (2.8 out of 10), which limits the case for a multiple above the current 23.7x forward P/E. Components | Revenue growth component score improves above 5.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.05 suggests earnings are expected to grow far faster than revenue, so low revenue growth may be a temporary base effect. | ||
Price of $57.07 is above the analyst target of $55.53 (upside -2.7%), so valuation upside depends on target revisions after earnings. Analyst target | Analysts raise targets above $60 after the 2026-11-04 report. | →Stable |
| CounterWith risk-to-reward at -0.26 and 10.2% downside to the stop, a post-earnings reset toward the target is the more likely outcome. | ||
Short interest of 16% with rising OBV (volume accumulation) means the stock can move sharply either way around earnings. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 12% as results come in. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh short interest is described as justified, and insiders sold $418,554 over the last 90 days with a BEARISH insider signal. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 shows improving fundamentals even though margins are moderate (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 2.1%).
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher and FCF margin rises above 5%.
CounterThe same data notes no competitive moat and low return on equity and net margin components (0.0 out of 10), so the high score may not translate into profit.
Bruker beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 22.8%, showing consistent execution against expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive at the 2026-11-04 report and the following quarter.
CounterOne quarter missed by 9.8%, guidance is unknown, and earnings in 3 days is a binary event with 86% implied volatility.
Revenue growth is weak (component score 3.8) and growth ranks low among peers (2.8 out of 10), which limits the case for a multiple above the current 23.7x forward P/E.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Revenue growth component score improves above 5.0 within 12 months.
CounterA PEG of 0.05 suggests earnings are expected to grow far faster than revenue, so low revenue growth may be a temporary base effect.
Price of $57.07 is above the analyst target of $55.53 (upside -2.7%), so valuation upside depends on target revisions after earnings.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $60 after the 2026-11-04 report.
CounterWith risk-to-reward at -0.26 and 10.2% downside to the stop, a post-earnings reset toward the target is the more likely outcome.
Short interest of 16% with rising OBV (volume accumulation) means the stock can move sharply either way around earnings.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 12% as results come in.
CounterHigh short interest is described as justified, and insiders sold $418,554 over the last 90 days with a BEARISH insider signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 5.7 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 4.0 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 2.1%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (3.0x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $418,554 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 2.6 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (15.7%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Above max pain $48
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:9.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.87
Upside
-12.9%
Downside
14.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 9.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.87 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 9.0, Catalyst at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Growth at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.87 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Piotroski Weak Margins
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 9.
- P3Weak Growth Limits Rerating
Trip ifRevenue growth stays below 3% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price falls below $52.64, the stop level, from the current $57.07.
- P5Short Interest Squeeze Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% of float from the current 16%.