Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 6.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.12
- ▸Attractively valued
BRC · Why this verdict
Why Brady (BRC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brady is a high-quality, wide-moat industrial with a 9/9 Piotroski score, an 11.5x forward P/E and 13.0% upside to the analyst target, held back by weak price action below its 200-day average and modest insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Brady has a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, which together show durable, high-quality returns on capital. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher and operating margin holds over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality is already well recognized, and the cyclical Industrials sector carries a -0.7 sector modifier, so a downturn in industrial demand could hit margins despite the moat. | ||
At a forward P/E of 11.5x and a PEG of 1.23, Brady is attractively valued for its earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 15x while earnings keep growing, so returns come from earnings rather than multiple expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple on peak-cycle earnings can be a trap, and peer-rank value sits only mid-pack at about 5.8 out of 10. | ||
Brady has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 4.7%, and the next report is due in 16 days. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive in the next two quarterly reports. | →Stable |
| CounterThe beat streak may reflect low estimates, and guidance is unknown, so one miss at the 2026-11-17 report could break sentiment quickly. | ||
The analyst target of $93.50 sits 13.0% above the current $82.77 price, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.6 against a 5.0% downside to the stop. Analyst target | Price rises toward the $93.50 target over 12 months while holding above the $78.91 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice is below its 200-day average with falling OBV (volume distribution), so the market may be pricing in weaker results than analysts expect. | ||
Price is below the 200-day average, but the average itself is still rising at +0.7% per 30 days, so this reads as a pullback within an uptrend and not a confirmed breakdown. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average slope stays positive and price recovers above it. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling OBV signals distribution, and insider selling of $615,441 with a BEARISH insider signal suggests informed holders are not buying the dip. | ||
Brady has a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, which together show durable, high-quality returns on capital.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher and operating margin holds over the next 12 months.
CounterQuality is already well recognized, and the cyclical Industrials sector carries a -0.7 sector modifier, so a downturn in industrial demand could hit margins despite the moat.
At a forward P/E of 11.5x and a PEG of 1.23, Brady is attractively valued for its earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 15x while earnings keep growing, so returns come from earnings rather than multiple expansion.
CounterA low multiple on peak-cycle earnings can be a trap, and peer-rank value sits only mid-pack at about 5.8 out of 10.
Brady has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 4.7%, and the next report is due in 16 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the next two quarterly reports.
CounterThe beat streak may reflect low estimates, and guidance is unknown, so one miss at the 2026-11-17 report could break sentiment quickly.
The analyst target of $93.50 sits 13.0% above the current $82.77 price, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.6 against a 5.0% downside to the stop.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price rises toward the $93.50 target over 12 months while holding above the $78.91 stop.
CounterPrice is below its 200-day average with falling OBV (volume distribution), so the market may be pricing in weaker results than analysts expect.
Price is below the 200-day average, but the average itself is still rising at +0.7% per 30 days, so this reads as a pullback within an uptrend and not a confirmed breakdown.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average slope stays positive and price recovers above it.
CounterFalling OBV signals distribution, and insider selling of $615,441 with a BEARISH insider signal suggests informed holders are not buying the dip.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 7.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.3 |
| Op margin | 7.9 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 7.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $615,441 (0.016% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 5.5 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.42
Upside
+12.9%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 12d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; weakest: Momentum at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, Growth at 7.5, and Value at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Insider at 3.9, and Peer rank at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Quality Compounder
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 9.
- P2Reasonable Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 16x from the current 11.5x.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Upside To 93
Trip ifShare price falls below $78.91, the stop level, from the current $82.77.
- P5Pullback In Uptrend Momentum
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope falls below 0% per 30 days from the current +0.7%.