Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 7.2 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.97
- ▸Attractively valued
BR · Why this verdict
Why Broadridge Financial Solutions, (BR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 13.7x and a PEG of 0.98, the stock screens attractively valued relative to its growth profile, with analyst consensus implying approximately 26% upside from the current price to the target. Valuation breakdown | The stock should close at least 15% of the gap to the analyst consensus target over the next 12 months as fundamentals are recognized. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light at eight firms, which dampens signal reliability, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2 introduces a leverage penalty that constrains financial flexibility if operating conditions deteriorate. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 11%, suggesting disciplined guidance and consistent operational execution. Earnings | The average quarterly EPS surprise should remain above 5% and the beat streak extend to at least six quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's beat narrowed to just 4.5% versus a 21% beat the prior quarter, signaling that the upside cushion may be compressing as expectations have been reset higher. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself sloping down approximately 7% over the last 30 days, and has triggered a hard death-cross block that precludes new entry. Momentum breakdown | If this bearish condition persists, price should remain below the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope should stay negative over the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe risk/reward geometry is roughly 6-to-1 in the investor's favor based on current price targets and stop levels — a technical reversal, if it occurs, could unlock a disproportionate gain relative to the near-term risk. | ||
A put/call ratio of 3.36 — over three times as many puts as calls — combined with implied volatility of 67% signals substantial institutional hedging activity against the stock, reflecting deep market skepticism about the near-term direction. Risk breakdown | A shift in sentiment would require the put/call ratio to fall below 1.5 and implied volatility to compress below 40%. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme put/call skew can be a contrarian signal — heavy hedging sometimes precedes short-covering rallies, and the positioning alone does not guarantee further price declines. | ||
At a forward P/E of 13.7x and a PEG of 0.98, the stock screens attractively valued relative to its growth profile, with analyst consensus implying approximately 26% upside from the current price to the target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should close at least 15% of the gap to the analyst consensus target over the next 12 months as fundamentals are recognized.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light at eight firms, which dampens signal reliability, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2 introduces a leverage penalty that constrains financial flexibility if operating conditions deteriorate.
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 11%, suggesting disciplined guidance and consistent operational execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The average quarterly EPS surprise should remain above 5% and the beat streak extend to at least six quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter's beat narrowed to just 4.5% versus a 21% beat the prior quarter, signaling that the upside cushion may be compressing as expectations have been reset higher.
The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself sloping down approximately 7% over the last 30 days, and has triggered a hard death-cross block that precludes new entry.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If this bearish condition persists, price should remain below the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope should stay negative over the next 6 months.
CounterThe risk/reward geometry is roughly 6-to-1 in the investor's favor based on current price targets and stop levels — a technical reversal, if it occurs, could unlock a disproportionate gain relative to the near-term risk.
A put/call ratio of 3.36 — over three times as many puts as calls — combined with implied volatility of 67% signals substantial institutional hedging activity against the stock, reflecting deep market skepticism about the near-term direction.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- A shift in sentiment would require the put/call ratio to fall below 1.5 and implied volatility to compress below 40%.
CounterExtreme put/call skew can be a contrarian signal — heavy hedging sometimes precedes short-covering rallies, and the positioning alone does not guarantee further price declines.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Broadridge has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging nearly 11% above consensus and trades at a forward P/E of 13.7x with roughly 26% upside to the analyst price target, but a confirmed technical downtrend and a hard death-cross block make the current setup uninvestable until momentum reverses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.1 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 7.4 |
| Net margin | 7.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.8 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 42%
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $304,720 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 5.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 5.8 |
| 52w position | 0.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸Above max pain $115
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 271.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.53
Upside
+24.8%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.53 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Peer rank at 4.4, and Growth at 4.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation With Material Upside
Trip ifUpside to analyst consensus target compresses below 10% from current levels.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Blocks Entry
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average and the 30-day MA slope turns positive for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Extreme Options Put Call Caution
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5 and implied volatility compresses below 40%.