Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.94
BR · Why this verdict
Why Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Broadridge is a high-return, dividend-growing business (41% ROE, 2.4% yield) but at $178.82 it offers only 3.8% upside to the $185.64 analyst target against 12.9% downside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is modest (growth score 4.1) against a 15.5x forward P/E and a PEG of 1.94. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth improves so PEG falls below 1.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWithout growth acceleration the multiple has no room to expand, and the technology sector carries a -0.8 penalty. | ||
Broadridge earns a 41% ROE with 15% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and ranks best-in-class on margins among peers. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% and quality stays above 6.5 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company has no competitive moat and ROE is boosted by leverage (debt-to-equity 1.2). | ||
At $178.82 the stock is only 3.8% below the $185.64 analyst target, with a reward-to-risk of 0.29. Upside pct | Analyst targets rise above $200 as earnings growth accelerates. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDownside to the stop of 12.9% is more than three times the upside, so the setup is unfavorable. | ||
Broadridge is a dividend aristocrat with a 2.4% yield and dividend safety of 8.0/10. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is raised again and safety stays above 7. | →Stable |
| CounterA 2.4% yield offers modest income support against a 15.5x forward P/E and PEG of 1.94. | ||
The stock is in a breakout above all moving averages, but momentum is only 5.2/10 with falling on-balance volume and a put/call ratio of 2.43. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and volume turns to accumulation. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA breakout on falling volume with heavy put buying is prone to failure. | ||
Growth is modest (growth score 4.1) against a 15.5x forward P/E and a PEG of 1.94.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth improves so PEG falls below 1.5.
CounterWithout growth acceleration the multiple has no room to expand, and the technology sector carries a -0.8 penalty.
Broadridge earns a 41% ROE with 15% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and ranks best-in-class on margins among peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% and quality stays above 6.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterThe company has no competitive moat and ROE is boosted by leverage (debt-to-equity 1.2).
At $178.82 the stock is only 3.8% below the $185.64 analyst target, with a reward-to-risk of 0.29.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above $200 as earnings growth accelerates.
CounterDownside to the stop of 12.9% is more than three times the upside, so the setup is unfavorable.
Broadridge is a dividend aristocrat with a 2.4% yield and dividend safety of 8.0/10.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is raised again and safety stays above 7.
CounterA 2.4% yield offers modest income support against a 15.5x forward P/E and PEG of 1.94.
The stock is in a breakout above all moving averages, but momentum is only 5.2/10 with falling on-balance volume and a put/call ratio of 2.43.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and volume turns to accumulation.
CounterA breakout on falling volume with heavy put buying is prone to failure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 9.8 |
| Net margin | 7.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.3 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 41%
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 5.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $399,560 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 1.0 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.86
- ▸Above max pain $115
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.4% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.10
Upside
-1.5%
Downside
14.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.10 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.6, Catalyst at 7.3, and Quality at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.8, Growth at 4.1, and Peer rank at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Returns Margins
Trip ifROE falls below 30% from current 41%.
- P2Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifShare price rises above the $185.64 analyst target, more than 3.8% above $178.82, without a target revision.
- P3Dividend Aristocrat Income
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 6.0 from current 8.0.
- P4Modest Growth Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio exceeds 2.5 from current 1.94.
- P5Breakout With Weak Volume
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from current 5.2.