Value
3.9/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
BOC · Why this verdict
Why Boston Omaha (BOC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Boston Omaha shows constructive insider buying against a backdrop of below-floor business quality, an overbought technical setup with heavy options hedging, and a string of recent earnings misses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Boston Omaha's quality score of 3.2 sits below the model's 4.0 investment floor, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, because margins remain thin (FCF margin just 2%). Bear case | Quality score should rise above 4.0 over the next 12 months as margins expand. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA strong Piotroski score of 8/9 suggests improving fundamentals are already underway even though the composite quality score hasn't caught up yet. | ||
Boston Omaha has missed earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters, with the most recent print on 2026-03-30 missing by a wide margin (-633%). Earnings | The company should post at least one earnings beat in its next report for the miss streak to be broken. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall negative EPS estimates make percentage surprises extremely volatile and not necessarily reflective of the underlying business trajectory. | ||
Boston Omaha insiders have been net buyers, adding roughly 91,798 shares with 7 buy transactions and zero sales in the recent window, a bullish insider signal per the model. Insider | Insider signal should remain BULLISH or at minimum NEUTRAL over the next 12 months for this conviction thesis to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider buys of this size can be routine compensation-related purchases rather than a high-conviction signal about future performance. | ||
The stock is overbought on RSI (72) while the options market shows an elevated put/call ratio of 1.75 and high implied volatility of 79%, signaling the market is actively hedging against a pullback. Key risks | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below over the next 12 months if hedging pressure eases. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can also reflect covered-call writing or portfolio hedging unrelated to a genuine bearish view on the stock. | ||
Boston Omaha's quality score of 3.2 sits below the model's 4.0 investment floor, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, because margins remain thin (FCF margin just 2%).
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise above 4.0 over the next 12 months as margins expand.
CounterA strong Piotroski score of 8/9 suggests improving fundamentals are already underway even though the composite quality score hasn't caught up yet.
Boston Omaha has missed earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters, with the most recent print on 2026-03-30 missing by a wide margin (-633%).
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should post at least one earnings beat in its next report for the miss streak to be broken.
CounterSmall negative EPS estimates make percentage surprises extremely volatile and not necessarily reflective of the underlying business trajectory.
Boston Omaha insiders have been net buyers, adding roughly 91,798 shares with 7 buy transactions and zero sales in the recent window, a bullish insider signal per the model.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider signal should remain BULLISH or at minimum NEUTRAL over the next 12 months for this conviction thesis to hold.
CounterInsider buys of this size can be routine compensation-related purchases rather than a high-conviction signal about future performance.
The stock is overbought on RSI (72) while the options market shows an elevated put/call ratio of 1.75 and high implied volatility of 79%, signaling the market is actively hedging against a pullback.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below over the next 12 months if hedging pressure eases.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can also reflect covered-call writing or portfolio hedging unrelated to a genuine bearish view on the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.4 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 3.5 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 2%, FCF yield 0.6%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 28)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $1,192,233 (0.279% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 2.1 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 1.2 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.82
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Insider at 7.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.0, Momentum at 6.0, and Technical at 6.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Growth at 3.0, and Quality at 3.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Insider Buying Conviction
Trip ifInsider signal flips to BEARISH with net share sales of more than 50,000 shares.
- P2Quality Score Below Investment Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.2.
- P3Overbought Momentum With Elevated Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 1.75.
- P4Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company posts an earnings beat with a positive surprise that exceeds 0% in its next reported quarter, breaking the current 3-quarter miss streak.