Value
5.5/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
BNT · Why this verdict
Why Brookfield Wealth Solutions (BNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brookfield Wealth Solutions shows strong 39% revenue growth and excellent cash conversion, but quality of 3.6 is below the 4.0 floor, there is no moat and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Overall quality is 3.6, below the 4.0 floor, with ROE and ROA scores near zero (0.3) and no identified competitive moat. Bear case | Quality score recovers above 4.0 as returns on equity and assets improve. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLow returns on equity reflect a large equity base from acquisitions, which may take years to earn through. | ||
Revenue is growing 39% YoY, which makes this an industry growth leader in its peer group. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0 despite the revenue surge, so growth may be acquisition-driven and not profitable. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 1000% FCF/NI, driven by an insurance float structure. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow remains well above net income, with fcf quality holding at 10/10. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurance cash flows include policyholder money, so high conversion may overstate the cash truly available to owners. | ||
The price is below its 200-day average with a 30-day slope of -3.1% (confirmed downtrend), but momentum is 6.8/10 on rising volume. Momentum breakdown | Price regains the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death-cross recovery can fail, and the downtrend slope is still negative. | ||
Dividend safety scores 8.0/10 with a 0.7% yield from a dividend-aristocrat record, but the yield is small. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained or raised, keeping dividend safety above 7. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 0.7% yield offers little income support if the share price falls. | ||
Overall quality is 3.6, below the 4.0 floor, with ROE and ROA scores near zero (0.3) and no identified competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 as returns on equity and assets improve.
CounterLow returns on equity reflect a large equity base from acquisitions, which may take years to earn through.
Revenue is growing 39% YoY, which makes this an industry growth leader in its peer group.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0 despite the revenue surge, so growth may be acquisition-driven and not profitable.
Cash conversion is excellent at 1000% FCF/NI, driven by an insurance float structure.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow remains well above net income, with fcf quality holding at 10/10.
CounterInsurance cash flows include policyholder money, so high conversion may overstate the cash truly available to owners.
The price is below its 200-day average with a 30-day slope of -3.1% (confirmed downtrend), but momentum is 6.8/10 on rising volume.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price regains the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5.
CounterA death-cross recovery can fail, and the downtrend slope is still negative.
Dividend safety scores 8.0/10 with a 0.7% yield from a dividend-aristocrat record, but the yield is small.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained or raised, keeping dividend safety above 7.
CounterA 0.7% yield offers little income support if the share price falls.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.3 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.7 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 0.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 39% YoY
Momentum
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 9.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 83 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 1.3 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 5.2 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Above max pain $30
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=8.2>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+15.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.61>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Momentum at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.2, Catalyst at 6.2, and Value at 5.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.5, Peer rank at 3.3, and Quality at 3.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from current 39%.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from current 1000%.
- P3Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from current 3.6.
- P4Downtrend Recovery Attempt
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from current 6.8.
- P5Dividend Record Low Yield
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 6.0 from current 8.0.