Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 2.41
BMY · Why this verdict
Why Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bristol-Myers is a high-quality, low-beta dividend payer at 9.4x forward earnings, but the $62.48 price is already above the $58.77 analyst target and leverage and U.S. concentration cap the upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
BMY is a high-quality business with a 44% ROE, 18% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | Quality score stays at or above 7.0 and ROE remains above 30% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 69% of net income, an earnings-quality warning, and the Rule of 40 score is a fail at 20. | ||
Debt-to-equity of 1.9 triggers a leverage penalty and 69.0% of revenue comes from the United States, concentrating policy and pricing risk. Bear case | Debt-to-equity stays at or below 1.9 while U.S. revenue share does not rise. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterU.S. drug-pricing pressure would hit most revenue at once, and higher leverage reduces flexibility for the dividend. | ||
The stock at $62.48 is above the $58.77 analyst target (upside of -5.9%), so the stock has no analyst-implied upside. Upside pct | Price pulls back toward the $57.14 entry level or analyst targets are raised above the price. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag in a breakout, and a golden cross with strong momentum can keep the price above target. | ||
With a beta of 0.18 and a 4.0% dividend yield, BMY behaves as a defensive income holding. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend yield stays near 4.0% and beta stays below 0.8. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDividend safety scores only 5.5/10, and 77% implied volatility suggests the market sees more event risk than beta implies. | ||
Growth is weak (growth score 2.8/10) so the 9.4x forward P/E is cheap but with a PEG of 2.41 that does not signal a bargain. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth improves so that PEG falls below 1.5 over ~12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout earnings growth, the low multiple may be a fair price for a declining franchise rather than a discount. | ||
BMY is a high-quality business with a 44% ROE, 18% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score stays at or above 7.0 and ROE remains above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 69% of net income, an earnings-quality warning, and the Rule of 40 score is a fail at 20.
Debt-to-equity of 1.9 triggers a leverage penalty and 69.0% of revenue comes from the United States, concentrating policy and pricing risk.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity stays at or below 1.9 while U.S. revenue share does not rise.
CounterU.S. drug-pricing pressure would hit most revenue at once, and higher leverage reduces flexibility for the dividend.
The stock at $62.48 is above the $58.77 analyst target (upside of -5.9%), so the stock has no analyst-implied upside.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price pulls back toward the $57.14 entry level or analyst targets are raised above the price.
CounterAnalyst targets lag in a breakout, and a golden cross with strong momentum can keep the price above target.
With a beta of 0.18 and a 4.0% dividend yield, BMY behaves as a defensive income holding.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend yield stays near 4.0% and beta stays below 0.8.
CounterDividend safety scores only 5.5/10, and 77% implied volatility suggests the market sees more event risk than beta implies.
Growth is weak (growth score 2.8/10) so the 9.4x forward P/E is cheap but with a PEG of 2.41 that does not signal a bargain.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth improves so that PEG falls below 1.5 over ~12 months.
CounterWithout earnings growth, the low multiple may be a fair price for a declining franchise rather than a discount.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 44%
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 69% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 20 (fail)
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 1.4 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $437,248 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 7.3 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $35
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 4.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-5.2% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:93d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.55
Upside
-5.2%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityConservative — Beta 0.19<0.8, Div 4.0%, Q=7.5
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 7.5 and asymmetric R:R of -0.55.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.5, Catalyst at 6.9, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Technical at 4.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.55 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality High Returns
Trip ifQuality score falls below 6.0 from current 7.5.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $70, more than 12% above the current $62.48 price.
- P3Leverage And Us Concentration
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 2.5 from current 1.9.
- P4Defensive Dividend Income
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 3.0% from current 4.0%, or beta rises above 0.8.
- P5Weak Growth Cheap Multiple
Trip ifPEG ratio exceeds 3.0 from current 2.41.