Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.5x
- ▸PEG: 2.41
BMY · Why this verdict
Why Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A high-quality pharmaceutical franchise with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, 135% free cash flow conversion, and four consecutive earnings beats averaging 14% above estimates is priced with just 0.9% headroom to the price target; momentum is at the minimum threshold with falling on-balance volume, and a 448% dividend payout ratio cannot be sustained from current earnings — the setup favors holding an existing position rather than deploying new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four consecutive quarters have come in above consensus estimates, with an average positive surprise of 14% and the most recent beat at 11%, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow converting at 135% of net income — indicating operational quality that runs above the income statement alone. Earnings | The beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters and free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn average surprise of 14% could reflect analysts consistently setting conservative estimates; if top-line growth remains muted, any guidance-setting normalization could break the streak without a change in underlying business performance. | ||
With only 0.9% remaining headroom to the price target and a risk/reward ratio well below the minimum bar for a new position, the operational story has been largely recognized by the market at current prices — the setup favors patience over new capital deployment. Price targets | Price declines below $50.00, creating more than 13% upside to the current price target and reopening a favorable entry setup. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIf analyst targets are revised higher on the back of continued earnings beats, the apparent ceiling rises and the current price could still represent positive expected value for a longer holding horizon. | ||
A dividend payout ratio of 448% of earnings — flagged as a yield trap with an unsafe payout — combined with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.3x leaves the capital structure exposed if cash generation softens, since the distribution appears to require sources beyond current net income to sustain. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend payout ratio falls below 100% of earnings for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that earnings growth has caught up with the distribution commitment. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 135% free cash flow conversion rate indicates more cash is generated than the GAAP earnings line implies; a high dividend payout relative to net income may not signal the same stress as it would in a cash-poor business. | ||
Momentum is at the minimum acceptable threshold — at the floor rather than comfortably above it — with on-balance volume falling, indicating that distribution rather than accumulation is occurring despite the stock remaining above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI rises above 60 and on-balance volume turns consistently positive for 4 consecutive weeks, signaling renewed buyer participation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith RSI at 43 mid-range and the stock still above its 200-day moving average, the momentum weakness is not yet oversold; a modest catalyst such as an earnings beat could quickly re-engage buyers without a meaningful price decline first. | ||
Four consecutive quarters have come in above consensus estimates, with an average positive surprise of 14% and the most recent beat at 11%, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow converting at 135% of net income — indicating operational quality that runs above the income statement alone.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters and free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterAn average surprise of 14% could reflect analysts consistently setting conservative estimates; if top-line growth remains muted, any guidance-setting normalization could break the streak without a change in underlying business performance.
With only 0.9% remaining headroom to the price target and a risk/reward ratio well below the minimum bar for a new position, the operational story has been largely recognized by the market at current prices — the setup favors patience over new capital deployment.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Price declines below $50.00, creating more than 13% upside to the current price target and reopening a favorable entry setup.
CounterIf analyst targets are revised higher on the back of continued earnings beats, the apparent ceiling rises and the current price could still represent positive expected value for a longer holding horizon.
A dividend payout ratio of 448% of earnings — flagged as a yield trap with an unsafe payout — combined with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.3x leaves the capital structure exposed if cash generation softens, since the distribution appears to require sources beyond current net income to sustain.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend payout ratio falls below 100% of earnings for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that earnings growth has caught up with the distribution commitment.
CounterThe 135% free cash flow conversion rate indicates more cash is generated than the GAAP earnings line implies; a high dividend payout relative to net income may not signal the same stress as it would in a cash-poor business.
Momentum is at the minimum acceptable threshold — at the floor rather than comfortably above it — with on-balance volume falling, indicating that distribution rather than accumulation is occurring despite the stock remaining above its 200-day moving average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI rises above 60 and on-balance volume turns consistently positive for 4 consecutive weeks, signaling renewed buyer participation.
CounterWith RSI at 43 mid-range and the stock still above its 200-day moving average, the momentum weakness is not yet oversold; a modest catalyst such as an earnings beat could quickly re-engage buyers without a meaningful price decline first.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 47%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Rule of 40: 22 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $437,248 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $30
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.9 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 4.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (2.2% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHEDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.38
Upside
+2.2%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.7) with weak momentum (1.3)
SuitabilityConservative — Beta 0.18<0.8, Div 4.5%, Q=7.7
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.3<4.5 outcome against Technical at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of 0.38.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Quality at 7.7, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.38 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Quality
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Fully Priced Limited Room
Trip ifPrice declines below $50.00, creating more than 13% upside to the current price target.
- P3Dividend Payout And Leverage Strain
Trip ifDividend payout ratio falls below 100% of earnings for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Momentum At Floor Falling Volume
Trip ifRSI rises above 60 and on-balance volume turns positive for 4 consecutive weeks.