Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 5.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
BMNR · Why this verdict
Why BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BitMine is a speculative, ETH-concentrated name trading far below its 52-week high with a confirmed downtrend and cash-burning results, offset by a 93.2% gap to the $38.99 analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business is tied to a single commodity, Ether, so results and the share price move with ETH rather than with operating execution. Bear case | ETH exposure keeps producing positive earnings contribution rather than recurring losses over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA sustained ETH drawdown would hit both the asset base and sentiment at once, and there is no diversifying business to offset it. | ||
The stock at $20.18 sits 93.2% below the $38.99 analyst target, with analyst-implied upside of 127% and an attractive PEG of 0.18. Upside pct | Price closes part of the gap to the target as earnings recover and momentum stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets for volatile crypto-linked names are often stale and the stock is down 69% from its 52-week high, so the gap may reflect real risk rather than mispricing. | ||
Business quality is below average at 4.6/10, with free cash flow at -847% of revenue, so the company is consuming cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow burn narrows and quality score improves above 5.5 over ~12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued cash burn at this scale could force dilutive financing that erodes per-share value. | ||
The last three quarters were all earnings misses (-171%, -147%, -229% surprise), so reported results have consistently undershot estimates. Last 4 quarters | EPS comes in at or above estimates in the next two reports, starting with the 2026-11-20 release. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge GAAP swings from crypto mark-to-market make estimates unreliable, so more misses are plausible regardless of operations. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.1/10 with the price below the 200-day average, a 30-day slope of -5.2% and falling on-balance volume, confirming a downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and the price regains its 200-day average within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDistribution volume and a falling trend line often persist, and catching a reversal early in a 69% drawdown is unreliable. | ||
The business is tied to a single commodity, Ether, so results and the share price move with ETH rather than with operating execution.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- ETH exposure keeps producing positive earnings contribution rather than recurring losses over the next 12 months.
CounterA sustained ETH drawdown would hit both the asset base and sentiment at once, and there is no diversifying business to offset it.
The stock at $20.18 sits 93.2% below the $38.99 analyst target, with analyst-implied upside of 127% and an attractive PEG of 0.18.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price closes part of the gap to the target as earnings recover and momentum stabilizes.
CounterAnalyst targets for volatile crypto-linked names are often stale and the stock is down 69% from its 52-week high, so the gap may reflect real risk rather than mispricing.
Business quality is below average at 4.6/10, with free cash flow at -847% of revenue, so the company is consuming cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow burn narrows and quality score improves above 5.5 over ~12 months.
CounterContinued cash burn at this scale could force dilutive financing that erodes per-share value.
The last three quarters were all earnings misses (-171%, -147%, -229% surprise), so reported results have consistently undershot estimates.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS comes in at or above estimates in the next two reports, starting with the 2026-11-20 release.
CounterLarge GAAP swings from crypto mark-to-market make estimates unreliable, so more misses are plausible regardless of operations.
Momentum is weak at 2.1/10 with the price below the 200-day average, a 30-day slope of -5.2% and falling on-balance volume, confirming a downtrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and the price regains its 200-day average within 12 months.
CounterDistribution volume and a falling trend line often persist, and catching a reversal early in a 69% drawdown is unreliable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -847% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: 1321 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 123%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 10.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.8 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 95%
- ▸Above max pain $11
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:6.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.99
Upside
+89.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -69% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:6.0>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 1.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.3, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.6, Quality at 4.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.99 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Eth Commodity Concentration
Trip ifQuarterly EPS stays below $0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Target Upside Gap
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $25, less than 25% above the current $20.18 price.
- P3Cash Burn Weak Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 4.0 from current 4.6.
- P4Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters, extending the miss streak to more than 5.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.