Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
BMA · Why this verdict
Why Banco Macro (BMA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank carries a Piotroski F-score of only 3/9 and no recognized competitive moat, while revenue is declining at -3%, reflecting a fundamental quality profile that falls below the threshold required for a durable position. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-score improves to 6 or above and revenue growth turns positive year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating a fundamental quality recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterA low Piotroski score in the context of a strongly positive news cycle and three recent earnings beats may reflect backward-looking metrics; if business conditions are improving, quality indicators could lead the recovery. | ||
The bank has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, and current news sentiment is strongly positive at +1.00, suggesting that near-term operational momentum is constructive even as longer-term quality concerns persist. Catalyst breakdown | The bank extends its beat streak to 4 of the next 5 quarters while news sentiment remains positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThree beats against a backdrop of declining revenue of -3% and a Piotroski score of 3/9 suggests the earnings outperformance is driven by one-off items rather than structural improvement — a single large miss reversed the entire average surprise score in the most recent four-quarter window. | ||
The stock has reached its near-term resistance target with approximately 0.1% implied upside remaining, and the risk-to-reward ratio is effectively zero — there is no margin of safety at the current price for new capital. Price targets | The stock corrects by more than 10% from current levels, creating a materially improved entry point with favorable asymmetry. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks at resistance can break through if underlying business momentum is strong; if the earnings beat streak continues, the near-term target may be revised higher, extending the appreciation runway. | ||
The RSI has reached 77, an overbought condition, while the stock trades near its 52-week high — a configuration that historically precedes mean reversion and limits the room for further near-term appreciation. Momentum breakdown | RSI compresses below 55 over the next 6 weeks as the stock consolidates from the overbought level, creating a healthier technical base. | →Stable |
| CounterStrongly trending stocks can remain overbought by standard RSI thresholds for extended periods; if positive sentiment catalysts continue, the overbought condition may resolve through time rather than price correction. | ||
The bank carries a Piotroski F-score of only 3/9 and no recognized competitive moat, while revenue is declining at -3%, reflecting a fundamental quality profile that falls below the threshold required for a durable position.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-score improves to 6 or above and revenue growth turns positive year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating a fundamental quality recovery.
CounterA low Piotroski score in the context of a strongly positive news cycle and three recent earnings beats may reflect backward-looking metrics; if business conditions are improving, quality indicators could lead the recovery.
The bank has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, and current news sentiment is strongly positive at +1.00, suggesting that near-term operational momentum is constructive even as longer-term quality concerns persist.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The bank extends its beat streak to 4 of the next 5 quarters while news sentiment remains positive.
CounterThree beats against a backdrop of declining revenue of -3% and a Piotroski score of 3/9 suggests the earnings outperformance is driven by one-off items rather than structural improvement — a single large miss reversed the entire average surprise score in the most recent four-quarter window.
The stock has reached its near-term resistance target with approximately 0.1% implied upside remaining, and the risk-to-reward ratio is effectively zero — there is no margin of safety at the current price for new capital.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock corrects by more than 10% from current levels, creating a materially improved entry point with favorable asymmetry.
CounterStocks at resistance can break through if underlying business momentum is strong; if the earnings beat streak continues, the near-term target may be revised higher, extending the appreciation runway.
The RSI has reached 77, an overbought condition, while the stock trades near its 52-week high — a configuration that historically precedes mean reversion and limits the room for further near-term appreciation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI compresses below 55 over the next 6 weeks as the stock consolidates from the overbought level, creating a healthier technical base.
CounterStrongly trending stocks can remain overbought by standard RSI thresholds for extended periods; if positive sentiment catalysts continue, the overbought condition may resolve through time rather than price correction.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The bank has delivered three beats in the last four quarters alongside strong positive news sentiment, but the stock has reached its resistance target with effectively zero remaining upside, quality metrics fall below the minimum acceptable bar, and an overbought RSI of 77 leaves no room for error — the setup argues for reducing rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.8 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Above max pain $40
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 589.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:54d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.94
Upside
+9.6%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.2, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.2, Quality at 3.9, and Catalyst at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Recent Earnings Beats Positive Sentiment
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the recent beat pattern.
- P2Stock At Resistance No Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price corrects by more than 10% from $99.95 (below approximately $90), offering materially improved risk-to-reward.
- P3Weak Quality Declining Revenue
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score improves to 6 or above and revenue growth turns positive for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Overbought At 52 Week High
Trip ifRSI compresses below 50 for 3 consecutive weeks, confirming the overbought condition has resolved.