Value
9.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
BMA · Why this verdict
Why Banco Macro (BMA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Banco Macro is a very cheaply valued regional bank (5.3x forward earnings, 7.6% dividend) with 51.8% upside to the analyst target and a 3-of-4 beat record, but it is in a confirmed downtrend after a 42% drawdown with weak growth and no moat.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth scores only 2.8 with revenue growth at 2.8 and earnings growth at 2.7, and the bank has no competitive moat and a quality rank of 0.6 against peers. Quality breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth components rise above 4.0 over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and an operating margin score of 10.0 show underlying financial health despite low growth scores. | ||
Banco Macro trades at a forward P/E of 5.3x with a PEG of 0.04, a value score of 9.5 and a 7.6% dividend yield. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 8x while the dividend is maintained over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA multiple this low in an emerging-market bank signals the market prices in high macro, currency and credit risk, and dividend safety scores only 5.5. | ||
Price of $60.15 is 51.8% below the analyst target of $91.32, a reward-to-risk of 5.0 against 10.3% downside to the stop, with analyst-implied upside of 75%. Upside pct | Price moves toward the $91.32 target as earnings are delivered over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light (9.0), which dampens the signal, and targets in volatile markets often prove stale after a 42% drawdown. | ||
Banco Macro beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including +27.2% on 2026-08-19 and +44.7% on 2026-02-25, after a -136.3% miss on 2025-11-26. Last 4 quarters | The beat record continues at the 2026-11-25 report and the following quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe November 2025 result was a loss (-551.46 against 1,520.42 expected), showing earnings can swing sharply in this macro environment. | ||
Price is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 3.7% over 30 days, a death cross is present, and momentum is only 3.3/10 with falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Price stabilizes above the $56.27 stop level and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPrice sits 42% below its 52-week high and short interest and days-to-cover scores are high, so a short squeeze could drive a sharp rebound. | ||
Growth scores only 2.8 with revenue growth at 2.8 and earnings growth at 2.7, and the bank has no competitive moat and a quality rank of 0.6 against peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth components rise above 4.0 over the next four quarters.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and an operating margin score of 10.0 show underlying financial health despite low growth scores.
Banco Macro trades at a forward P/E of 5.3x with a PEG of 0.04, a value score of 9.5 and a 7.6% dividend yield.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 8x while the dividend is maintained over the next 12 months.
CounterA multiple this low in an emerging-market bank signals the market prices in high macro, currency and credit risk, and dividend safety scores only 5.5.
Price of $60.15 is 51.8% below the analyst target of $91.32, a reward-to-risk of 5.0 against 10.3% downside to the stop, with analyst-implied upside of 75%.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $91.32 target as earnings are delivered over 12 months.
CounterCoverage is light (9.0), which dampens the signal, and targets in volatile markets often prove stale after a 42% drawdown.
Banco Macro beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including +27.2% on 2026-08-19 and +44.7% on 2026-02-25, after a -136.3% miss on 2025-11-26.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- The beat record continues at the 2026-11-25 report and the following quarter.
CounterThe November 2025 result was a loss (-551.46 against 1,520.42 expected), showing earnings can swing sharply in this macro environment.
Price is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 3.7% over 30 days, a death cross is present, and momentum is only 3.3/10 with falling on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stabilizes above the $56.27 stop level and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next two quarters.
CounterPrice sits 42% below its 52-week high and short interest and days-to-cover scores are high, so a short squeeze could drive a sharp rebound.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.5 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 78%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.8 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 1.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 73%
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 7.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.11
Upside
+54.8%
Downside
10.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -43% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:5.1>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.5; weakest: Momentum at 2.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Sentiment at 8.3, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Growth at 2.8, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value High Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 9x from current 5.3x without an earnings upgrade.
- P2Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst-target upside falls below 25% from current 51.8% as targets are cut.
- P3Earnings Beats With One Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2026-11-25 report and the next quarter.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops to $56.27 or below, the support-based stop level.
- P5Weak Growth No Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 0% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.