Value
8.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 9.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.52
- ▸Attractively valued
BLX · Why this verdict
Why Bladex, Inc. Class E (BLX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bladex is a cheaply valued regional bank with best-in-class margins, a 5.6% dividend and 14.5% upside to the analyst target, but it is in a deeply oversold pullback with weak momentum and falling volume.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Bladex trades at a forward P/E of 7.0x with a PEG of 0.50 and a stated 33% margin of safety, giving a value score of 8.4. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 9x while earnings are maintained over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA low multiple on a regional emerging-market trade-finance bank can reflect country and credit risk that the valuation score does not capture. | ||
Bladex has strong 71% margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a quality rank of 8.9 against peers, supporting a quality score of 5.6. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 60% and the quality score rises above 6.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterReturn on equity (4.7) and return on assets (1.1) component scores are low, so high margins are not translating into strong returns on capital. | ||
RSI is 25 with price below the 200-day average, but that average is still rising 3.4% over 30 days, indicating a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness; momentum is 3.0/10. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 and price reclaims the 200-day average over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume and a MACD score of 0 show distribution, so the selling may continue before any bounce. | ||
Price of $48.94 is 14.5% below the analyst target of $56.02, against 6.2% downside to the stop, and the dividend yield is 5.6%. Upside pct | Price moves toward the $56.02 target while the dividend is maintained. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light (4.0), which dampens the signal, and the target has already been haircut by 15%. | ||
Growth scores 5.7 with revenue growth at 6.6 and earnings growth at 4.8, while insiders made a small purchase of $178,020 and institutions are accumulating. Insider breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 5% year over year and institutional ownership keeps rising. | →Stable |
| CounterThe insider purchase is only 0.010% of market cap, which is too small to be a meaningful signal. | ||
Bladex trades at a forward P/E of 7.0x with a PEG of 0.50 and a stated 33% margin of safety, giving a value score of 8.4.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 9x while earnings are maintained over the next 12 months.
CounterA low multiple on a regional emerging-market trade-finance bank can reflect country and credit risk that the valuation score does not capture.
Bladex has strong 71% margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a quality rank of 8.9 against peers, supporting a quality score of 5.6.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 60% and the quality score rises above 6.0.
CounterReturn on equity (4.7) and return on assets (1.1) component scores are low, so high margins are not translating into strong returns on capital.
RSI is 25 with price below the 200-day average, but that average is still rising 3.4% over 30 days, indicating a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness; momentum is 3.0/10.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and price reclaims the 200-day average over the next two quarters.
CounterFalling on-balance volume and a MACD score of 0 show distribution, so the selling may continue before any bounce.
Price of $48.94 is 14.5% below the analyst target of $56.02, against 6.2% downside to the stop, and the dividend yield is 5.6%.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $56.02 target while the dividend is maintained.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light (4.0), which dampens the signal, and the target has already been haircut by 15%.
Growth scores 5.7 with revenue growth at 6.6 and earnings growth at 4.8, while insiders made a small purchase of $178,020 and institutions are accumulating.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 5% year over year and institutional ownership keeps rising.
CounterThe insider purchase is only 0.010% of market cap, which is too small to be a meaningful signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 71%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 7.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $178,020 (0.009% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.5 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.1 |
- ▸High IV: 80%
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 5.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:100d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.62
Upside
+9.7%
Downside
6.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.3; weakest: Momentum at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Technical at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Catalyst at 5.0, and Quality at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.62 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Margin Of Safety
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x from current 7.0x without an earnings upgrade.
- P2Best In Class Margins Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 50% from current 71%.
- P3Oversold Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice drops to $47.33 or below, the support-based stop level.
- P4Analyst Upside And Dividend
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 4.0% from current 5.6% due to a dividend cut.
- P5Modest Growth Institutional Support
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 2% year over year from current growth score of 6.6.