Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
- ▸Attractively valued
BLMN · Why this verdict
Why Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BLMN screens as cheap with excellent cash conversion and a perfect earnings beat streak, but its quality score sits below the engine's floor and the stock has already reached its valuation target with a negative modeled asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company shows excellent cash conversion at 1000% of net income in free cash flow terms, even though the engine finds no competitive moat and quality sits below the 4.0 floor at 3.2. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion should remain strong (FCF/NI above 200%) as long as the underlying business model holds over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1000% FCF/NI ratio driven off a very thin net income base can be a statistical artifact of depreciation or working-capital timing rather than a durable structural advantage. | ||
The company has beaten earnings in all of the last 4 quarters with a 28.5% average surprise, which the engine flags as a perfect beat streak. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterConsistent beats against low expectations for a mature restaurant chain can reflect conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamental strength. | ||
The stock screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.30. Valuation breakdown | The value score should remain above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA cheap multiple in a restaurant chain with no competitive moat and below-floor quality could reflect the market correctly pricing in structural competitive risk rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior valuation target, leaving a -13.9% upside estimate, with the asymmetry ratio failing the engine's gate at -0.93. Engine gate (failed) | The upside estimate should turn positive and the asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap PEG of 0.30 combined with a perfect earnings beat streak could still support upside beyond what the currently negative modeled asymmetry ratio implies. | ||
The engine attributes the stock's edge to its size, noting the $0.7 billion market cap sits below the threshold typically required for institutional participation. Edge rationale | As market capitalization grows toward or beyond the institutional-reach threshold, the constraint-based edge should compress over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRemaining below institutional reach for an extended period could reflect structurally limited investor interest rather than an exploitable structural mispricing. | ||
The company shows excellent cash conversion at 1000% of net income in free cash flow terms, even though the engine finds no competitive moat and quality sits below the 4.0 floor at 3.2.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion should remain strong (FCF/NI above 200%) as long as the underlying business model holds over the next 12 months.
CounterA 1000% FCF/NI ratio driven off a very thin net income base can be a statistical artifact of depreciation or working-capital timing rather than a durable structural advantage.
The company has beaten earnings in all of the last 4 quarters with a 28.5% average surprise, which the engine flags as a perfect beat streak.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters over the next 12 months.
CounterConsistent beats against low expectations for a mature restaurant chain can reflect conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamental strength.
The stock screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.30.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should remain above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists over the next 12 months.
CounterA cheap multiple in a restaurant chain with no competitive moat and below-floor quality could reflect the market correctly pricing in structural competitive risk rather than a genuine mispricing.
The stock has already reached its prior valuation target, leaving a -13.9% upside estimate, with the asymmetry ratio failing the engine's gate at -0.93.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The upside estimate should turn positive and the asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA cheap PEG of 0.30 combined with a perfect earnings beat streak could still support upside beyond what the currently negative modeled asymmetry ratio implies.
The engine attributes the stock's edge to its size, noting the $0.7 billion market cap sits below the threshold typically required for institutional participation.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- As market capitalization grows toward or beyond the institutional-reach threshold, the constraint-based edge should compress over the next 12 months.
CounterRemaining below institutional reach for an extended period could reflect structurally limited investor interest rather than an exploitable structural mispricing.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 1.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 999% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.7 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 1.1 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 0.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.83
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 5.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:64d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.09
Upside
+1.1%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.5<4.5 outcome against Technical at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of 0.09.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Value at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.6, Quality at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Cheap Peg
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.2, indicating the valuation discount has closed.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion Despite No Moat
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 100% from the current 1000%.
- P3Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the current 4-quarter streak.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0 from the current -0.93.
- P5Small Cap Institutional Constraint
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $3 billion from the current $0.7 billion.