Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.0 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.32
BL · Why this verdict
Why BlackLine (BL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BlackLine pairs excellent cash conversion and a 3-for-3 earnings beat record with a 43% drawdown, an overbought bounce and a price 2.0% above the analyst target just ahead of earnings on 2026-11-05.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
BlackLine converts 399% of net income into free cash flow, with a 10.0 gross margin score and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and quality rises above 6.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating margin and net margin components are only 2.6 and 2.4, so high cash conversion may reflect stock-based compensation add-backs rather than true profitability. | ||
BlackLine beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +14.9%, including +27.3% on 2026-08-04 and +24.1% on 2026-05-05. Last 4 quarters | The beat streak continues at the 2026-11-05 report and the following quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings are due in 4 days and a 12.2x forward P/E after a large beat run implies expectations are already elevated. | ||
Price of $33.81 is 2.0% above the analyst target of $33.15, so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is slightly negative at -0.13. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets above $34 or price retraces toward the $31.44 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterAfter a 43% drawdown from the 52-week high, targets may be stale and the stock could keep recovering as results beat. | ||
RSI is overbought at 77 with falling on-balance volume and a flat or negative 200-day average slope, signaling late-cycle distribution risk despite a MACD score of 10. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools below 65 without price breaking below the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD is strongly bullish and price is above the 200-day average, so the recovery could carry through earnings. | ||
Insiders sold about $2.26 million (0.115% of market cap) and short interest is 13% with implied volatility at 84%. Insider breakdown | Insider selling stays minor and short interest declines below 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is a small share of market cap and elevated short interest could fuel a squeeze if earnings beat again. | ||
BlackLine converts 399% of net income into free cash flow, with a 10.0 gross margin score and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and quality rises above 6.0 over 12 months.
CounterOperating margin and net margin components are only 2.6 and 2.4, so high cash conversion may reflect stock-based compensation add-backs rather than true profitability.
BlackLine beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +14.9%, including +27.3% on 2026-08-04 and +24.1% on 2026-05-05.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues at the 2026-11-05 report and the following quarter.
CounterEarnings are due in 4 days and a 12.2x forward P/E after a large beat run implies expectations are already elevated.
Price of $33.81 is 2.0% above the analyst target of $33.15, so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is slightly negative at -0.13.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $34 or price retraces toward the $31.44 stop level.
CounterAfter a 43% drawdown from the 52-week high, targets may be stale and the stock could keep recovering as results beat.
RSI is overbought at 77 with falling on-balance volume and a flat or negative 200-day average slope, signaling late-cycle distribution risk despite a MACD score of 10.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 65 without price breaking below the 200-day average.
CounterMACD is strongly bullish and price is above the 200-day average, so the recovery could carry through earnings.
Insiders sold about $2.26 million (0.115% of market cap) and short interest is 13% with implied volatility at 84%.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling stays minor and short interest declines below 10%.
CounterThe selling is a small share of market cap and elevated short interest could fuel a squeeze if earnings beat again.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.3 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 399% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 9.9 |
| OBV | 4.9 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,263,237 (0.114% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 1.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.6 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 90%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.9 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.04
Upside
-0.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.04 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Growth at 7.4, and Value at 6.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.1, Technical at 3.2, and Insider at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 150% from current 399%.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2026-11-05 report and the next quarter.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice drops to $31.44 or below, the stop level, before the analyst target is raised.
- P4Overbought Late Cycle Bounce
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.5 from current 4.9.
- P5Insider Selling And Short Interest
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap over a 90-day window from current 0.115%.