Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.59
- ▸Attractively valued
BKU · Why this verdict
Why BankUnited (BKU) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BankUnited is a cheaply valued regional bank with strong margins and a solid Piotroski score, but price is 5.3% above the analyst target, growth is weak, and recent earnings have missed or matched estimates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth scores only 3.2 with revenue growth at 3.2 and earnings growth at 3.3, and the bank has no competitive moat (moat score 4.2). Components | Revenue and earnings growth components rise above 5.0 as net interest income expands. | →Stable |
| CounterSlow growth is typical for a mature regional bank, and cheap valuation already prices that in. | ||
BankUnited trades at a forward P/E of 9.9x with a PEG of 1.55 and strong 26% margins, giving a value score of 7.0. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 11x while margins hold near 26% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.5 and regional banks often trade cheaply for reasons tied to credit and funding risk. | ||
Price of $43.00 is 5.3% above the analyst target of $40.73, so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative at -1.05. Upside pct | Price pulls back toward $40.84 or analysts raise targets above $43 as earnings improve. | →Stable |
| CounterThe downside to the stop is only 5.0%, and bank valuations can re-rate quickly on rate-cut expectations. | ||
Over the last four quarters the bank had 2 misses and 1 beat with an average surprise of -3.1%, including -13.5% on 2026-04-22, and the latest quarter was in line at 1.03 per share. Last 4 quarters | EPS beats estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 reports, with the next on 2027-01-20. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe latest quarter matched estimates at $1.03 and per-share earnings rose from $0.83 to $1.03 over two quarters, so the trend is improving. | ||
Concentration risk is flagged as regulatory exposure to the OCC, with one high and two medium concentration risks in the 10-K risk factors. Bear case | No adverse regulatory action or capital requirement change is announced over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBeing supervised by a national bank regulator is standard for banks, and the stated risk is generic rather than a specific enforcement action. | ||
Growth scores only 3.2 with revenue growth at 3.2 and earnings growth at 3.3, and the bank has no competitive moat (moat score 4.2).
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth components rise above 5.0 as net interest income expands.
CounterSlow growth is typical for a mature regional bank, and cheap valuation already prices that in.
BankUnited trades at a forward P/E of 9.9x with a PEG of 1.55 and strong 26% margins, giving a value score of 7.0.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 11x while margins hold near 26% over the next 12 months.
CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.5 and regional banks often trade cheaply for reasons tied to credit and funding risk.
Price of $43.00 is 5.3% above the analyst target of $40.73, so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative at -1.05.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price pulls back toward $40.84 or analysts raise targets above $43 as earnings improve.
CounterThe downside to the stop is only 5.0%, and bank valuations can re-rate quickly on rate-cut expectations.
Over the last four quarters the bank had 2 misses and 1 beat with an average surprise of -3.1%, including -13.5% on 2026-04-22, and the latest quarter was in line at 1.03 per share.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS beats estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 reports, with the next on 2027-01-20.
CounterThe latest quarter matched estimates at $1.03 and per-share earnings rose from $0.83 to $1.03 over two quarters, so the trend is improving.
Concentration risk is flagged as regulatory exposure to the OCC, with one high and two medium concentration risks in the 10-K risk factors.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- No adverse regulatory action or capital requirement change is announced over 12 months.
CounterBeing supervised by a national bank regulator is standard for banks, and the stated risk is generic rather than a specific enforcement action.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $143,700 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:77d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.04
Upside
-5.8%
Downside
5.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.0; weakest: Growth at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4, and Momentum at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 3.2, Catalyst at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Strong Margins
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from current 9.9x without an earnings upgrade.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice drops to $40.84 or below, the stop level, before the analyst target is raised.
- P3Weak Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2027-01-20 report and the one after.
- P4Low Growth No Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 0% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Regulatory Concentration Risk
Trip ifQuality score falls below 4.0 from current 5.1.