Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.25
BKR · Why this verdict
Why Baker Hughes (BKR) is rated HOLD
Updated
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters by an average of roughly 14.4%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of exceeding street expectations and delivering above guidance on operational results. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six or more consecutive quarters, with the average positive surprise remaining above 10% over the next four reported periods. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average surprise of 14.4% sets a high bar for future quarters; if management tightens guidance or consensus revisions narrow the gap, maintaining double-digit positive surprises becomes progressively more difficult. | ||
Earnings growth scores at the top of the range, reflecting expanding per-share earnings over recent periods that places the company among the stronger growth profiles within its peer group on this dimension. Growth | Reported EPS remains above $0.60 per quarter for the next four periods, confirming the earnings trajectory is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterNo identifiable competitive moat is noted in the quality assessment, which leaves earnings growth more dependent on market conditions rather than structural pricing advantages. | ||
With only 2.6% of headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.57 — well below any reasonable minimum — the current price does not offer sufficient compensation for the near-term downside risk, making this a hold rather than a buy signal. Price targets | If the thesis holds, the stock remains range-bound within 5% of the current analyst target for the next 2 quarters, never opening a more attractive entry window. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterIf the analyst community revises targets higher following another strong quarterly beat — which the four-quarter beat streak makes plausible — the upside gap could widen and shift the risk/reward to favorable. | ||
Despite holding above the 200-day moving average, on-balance volume is falling — indicating distribution pressure — and the momentum gate sits well below the minimum threshold, signaling that selling pressure is outweighing buying interest beneath the surface. Momentum | If the thesis holds, on-balance volume continues to decline and the stock remains range-bound near current levels without breaking above the analyst target for at least 2 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe RSI reading has been characterized as an uptrend pullback rather than a structural reversal; if sector conditions stabilize, the stock's support above the 200-day moving average and strong technical score could attract buyers and reverse the OBV trend. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters by an average of roughly 14.4%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of exceeding street expectations and delivering above guidance on operational results.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six or more consecutive quarters, with the average positive surprise remaining above 10% over the next four reported periods.
CounterThe average surprise of 14.4% sets a high bar for future quarters; if management tightens guidance or consensus revisions narrow the gap, maintaining double-digit positive surprises becomes progressively more difficult.
Earnings growth scores at the top of the range, reflecting expanding per-share earnings over recent periods that places the company among the stronger growth profiles within its peer group on this dimension.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Reported EPS remains above $0.60 per quarter for the next four periods, confirming the earnings trajectory is intact.
CounterNo identifiable competitive moat is noted in the quality assessment, which leaves earnings growth more dependent on market conditions rather than structural pricing advantages.
With only 2.6% of headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.57 — well below any reasonable minimum — the current price does not offer sufficient compensation for the near-term downside risk, making this a hold rather than a buy signal.
Tripped→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- If the thesis holds, the stock remains range-bound within 5% of the current analyst target for the next 2 quarters, never opening a more attractive entry window.
CounterIf the analyst community revises targets higher following another strong quarterly beat — which the four-quarter beat streak makes plausible — the upside gap could widen and shift the risk/reward to favorable.
Despite holding above the 200-day moving average, on-balance volume is falling — indicating distribution pressure — and the momentum gate sits well below the minimum threshold, signaling that selling pressure is outweighing buying interest beneath the surface.
↓DeterioratingMomentum
- Expectation
- If the thesis holds, on-balance volume continues to decline and the stock remains range-bound near current levels without breaking above the analyst target for at least 2 months.
CounterThe RSI reading has been characterized as an uptrend pullback rather than a structural reversal; if sector conditions stabilize, the stock's support above the 200-day moving average and strong technical score could attract buyers and reverse the OBV trend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.7 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 5.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 5.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $28,657,966 (0.052% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.68
Upside
+12.2%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; weakest: Technical at 5.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1, Catalyst at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 5.0, Peer rank at 5.0, and Quality at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the four-quarter beat streak.
- P2Strong Earnings Growth Trajectory
Trip ifReported EPS falls below $0.50 for 2 consecutive quarters, from the recent range of $0.58 to $0.78.
- P3Near Target Unfavorable Risk RewardTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below $57 while the analyst target remains at or above $64, creating upside greater than 12% and improving the risk/reward above 1.5x.
- P4Falling Obv Despite Ma Support
Trip ifPrice closes above the analyst target of $64.11 for 5 or more consecutive trading days, confirming momentum has reversed.