Value
4.1/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.5 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.5 |
BIO-B · Why this verdict
Why Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO-B) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock screens as expensive relative to fundamentals — the valuation composite sits well below a quality buy threshold — while revenue growth of approximately 2.8% provides limited earnings power to grow into the current multiple. Bear case | If this pillar is falsified, the stock price should fall more than 20% from $304 to below $244, meaningfully improving the valuation entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterPremium-quality businesses with strong cash conversion often sustain elevated multiples for extended periods; if the Piotroski score holds at 9 out of 9 and FCF remains above net income, the current price level may prove durable. | ||
The engine flags upside as fully exhausted at the analyst consensus level, with zero remaining upside priced into analyst targets — limiting the case for deploying new capital at current prices based on fundamental valuation. Gates warning | If this resolves, the stock should close above the $349 mechanical target for 5 consecutive sessions, indicating the market has found upside beyond the currently exhausted level. | →Stable |
| CounterA mechanical take-profit level at $349 implies approximately 15% technical headroom even absent analyst support; if price momentum continues from the current recovery setup, technical targets may be reached independently of analyst revisions. | ||
A perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 136% of net income confirm a financially healthy business generating more cash than its reported earnings indicate. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 9 and FCF stays above net income for the next four reporting periods, confirming the quality baseline is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates are trending downward, and the historical record includes a significant 23% miss — if the downward revision trend continues, cash conversion metrics may follow as operating conditions soften. | ||
With RSI at 100 — a fully overbought reading — following a recovery from a death-cross pattern, the stock is technically extended and susceptible to a mean-reversion pullback that could erase recent gains quickly. Momentum breakdown | If this resolves without a pullback, RSI should decline to the 50–70 range within two months while the stock holds above $290. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and the setup is classified as a recovery phase; in genuine recoveries, overbought conditions can persist longer than expected as momentum builds and short sellers are forced to cover. | ||
The stock screens as expensive relative to fundamentals — the valuation composite sits well below a quality buy threshold — while revenue growth of approximately 2.8% provides limited earnings power to grow into the current multiple.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If this pillar is falsified, the stock price should fall more than 20% from $304 to below $244, meaningfully improving the valuation entry point.
CounterPremium-quality businesses with strong cash conversion often sustain elevated multiples for extended periods; if the Piotroski score holds at 9 out of 9 and FCF remains above net income, the current price level may prove durable.
The engine flags upside as fully exhausted at the analyst consensus level, with zero remaining upside priced into analyst targets — limiting the case for deploying new capital at current prices based on fundamental valuation.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- If this resolves, the stock should close above the $349 mechanical target for 5 consecutive sessions, indicating the market has found upside beyond the currently exhausted level.
CounterA mechanical take-profit level at $349 implies approximately 15% technical headroom even absent analyst support; if price momentum continues from the current recovery setup, technical targets may be reached independently of analyst revisions.
A perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 136% of net income confirm a financially healthy business generating more cash than its reported earnings indicate.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 9 and FCF stays above net income for the next four reporting periods, confirming the quality baseline is durable.
CounterEarnings estimates are trending downward, and the historical record includes a significant 23% miss — if the downward revision trend continues, cash conversion metrics may follow as operating conditions soften.
With RSI at 100 — a fully overbought reading — following a recovery from a death-cross pattern, the stock is technically extended and susceptible to a mean-reversion pullback that could erase recent gains quickly.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If this resolves without a pullback, RSI should decline to the 50–70 range within two months while the stock holds above $290.
CounterMACD is improving and the setup is classified as a recovery phase; in genuine recoveries, overbought conditions can persist longer than expected as momentum builds and short sellers are forced to cover.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Strong financial health metrics — a perfect Piotroski score and free cash flow above net income — underpin a quality foundation, but rich valuation, analyst consensus upside fully exhausted, an overbought technical reading, and estimates trending downward converge to create an unfavorable near-term entry setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.8 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 6.4 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 136% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 5.5 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunity
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.4 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
Catalyst
8.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 9.4 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 9.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.2, Catalyst at 8.1, and Technical at 7.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.5, Growth at 2.8, and Value at 4.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rich Valuation Low Margin Safety
Trip ifStock price falls below $244 (a decline of more than 20% from the current $304), materially improving the valuation entry point.
- P2Analyst Consensus Upside Exhausted
Trip ifPrice closes above $349 for 5 consecutive trading sessions, demonstrating upside beyond the currently exhausted consensus level.
- P3Quality Financial Foundation
Trip ifPiotroski score falls below 7 or FCF/NI ratio drops below 80% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P4Overbought At Recovery Peak
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 and price closes below $290 for 5 consecutive sessions, confirming the mean-reversion pullback has materialized.