Value
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.61
BIIB · Why this verdict
Why Biogen (BIIB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Biogen is a high-quality, cash-generative biotech (Piotroski 9/9, 233% FCF/NI) with strong momentum, but the price already sits 4.4% above the analyst target near its 52-week high, leaving little room to add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business converts earnings into cash exceptionally well, with 233% FCF/NI and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, supporting an overall quality score of 6.2. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI stays above 100% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBiogen's legacy product revenue is eroding and strong cash conversion may reflect declining reinvestment rather than durable earnings power. | ||
At $253.62 the stock is 4.4% above the $242.52 analyst target, so the target has been reached and downside to the stop is 14.9%. Warnings | Analyst targets are raised above $260, or price consolidates toward $242.52. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTargets lag price; a pipeline readout or earnings beat could force upward revisions and sustain the move. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.3/10 with rising OBV and price above the 200-day average, but RSI is overbought at 71 and the stock is within 2.0% of its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average while RSI cools below 70. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOverbought readings near a 52-week high often precede pullbacks, especially when valuation already exceeds the analyst target. | ||
Valuation is no longer cheap, with a forward P/E of 15.6x and a PEG of 2.61, while revenue growth is a moderate 5.2/10 and the Rule of 40 score fails at 18. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth accelerates enough to bring the PEG below 2.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA forward P/E of 15.6x is still below the broader market multiple for a profitable biotech with conservative debt. | ||
News sentiment is negative (-0.67), the news adjustment downgrades the stance, and the put/call ratio is 1.21, so recent headlines weigh against the rally. Bear case | News sentiment turns above 0 and the put/call ratio normalizes below 1.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterNegative headlines can be one-off (such as an officer departure) and have not stopped the price from reaching a 52-week high. | ||
The business converts earnings into cash exceptionally well, with 233% FCF/NI and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, supporting an overall quality score of 6.2.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI stays above 100% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above.
CounterBiogen's legacy product revenue is eroding and strong cash conversion may reflect declining reinvestment rather than durable earnings power.
At $253.62 the stock is 4.4% above the $242.52 analyst target, so the target has been reached and downside to the stop is 14.9%.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $260, or price consolidates toward $242.52.
CounterTargets lag price; a pipeline readout or earnings beat could force upward revisions and sustain the move.
Momentum is strong at 7.3/10 with rising OBV and price above the 200-day average, but RSI is overbought at 71 and the stock is within 2.0% of its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average while RSI cools below 70.
CounterOverbought readings near a 52-week high often precede pullbacks, especially when valuation already exceeds the analyst target.
Valuation is no longer cheap, with a forward P/E of 15.6x and a PEG of 2.61, while revenue growth is a moderate 5.2/10 and the Rule of 40 score fails at 18.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth accelerates enough to bring the PEG below 2.0.
CounterA forward P/E of 15.6x is still below the broader market multiple for a profitable biotech with conservative debt.
News sentiment is negative (-0.67), the news adjustment downgrades the stance, and the put/call ratio is 1.21, so recent headlines weigh against the rally.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- News sentiment turns above 0 and the put/call ratio normalizes below 1.0.
CounterNegative headlines can be one-off (such as an officer departure) and have not stopped the price from reaching a 52-week high.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 9.6 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 233% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 18 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $175
Catalyst
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:94d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.18
Upside
-2.3%
Downside
13.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5. Top dim: Catalyst at 7.9; weakest: Technical at 4.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.9, Momentum at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 4.8, Value at 4.8, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income falls below 100% from the current 233%.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises above $280, more than 15% above the $242.52 analyst target.
- P3Strong Momentum Near High
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day average with momentum score below 4.5.
- P4Fair Valuation Moderate Growth
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 20x from the current 15.6x.
- P5Negative News And Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 2.0 from the current 1.21.