Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
BHVN · Why this verdict
Why Biohaven (BHVN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Biohaven is a pre-revenue biotech with 36.2% analyst upside and breakout momentum, but cash burn, a 2/9 Piotroski score, 15% short interest and 91% implied volatility make it a speculative holding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At $15.42 the stock is 36.2% below the $21.00 analyst target against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 2.41, with analyst upside of 51% and a breakout setup. Targets | Price moves toward the $21.00 target while holding above the stop. | →Stable |
| CounterA biotech without product revenue depends on trial outcomes, so an analyst target can collapse on a single failed readout. | ||
The business is pre-revenue and cash-burning, with FCF negative, quarterly revenue at $0 in recent periods, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, so quality is 2.1. Quality breakdown | Quarterly revenue begins to appear near the $65M next-quarter estimate and cash burn narrows. | ↑Improving |
| CounterClinical-stage biotechs are valued on pipeline probability, so conventional quality scores understate asset value. | ||
Quarterly EPS losses of -0.73, -0.78, -0.69 and -0.90 across the last 4 quarters, with 2 beats and 2 misses, show persistent losses that are not narrowing. Earnings | Quarterly loss per share narrows below $0.60 as revenue starts. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising R&D spending ahead of launch is intentional, and the losses are funded by a balance sheet that may hold enough cash. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.3/10, with rising OBV volume accumulation, price above the 200-day average, and institutions accumulating. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 6.2% gap down shows momentum can reverse quickly, and biotech rallies are prone to sharp pullbacks. | ||
Short interest is high at 15% and implied volatility is 91%, with price above the $12 max-pain level, indicating a heavily contested and volatile stock. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 10% as clinical or commercial milestones are met. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh short interest can fuel squeezes on positive news, so the same positioning that signals risk also enables sharp upside. | ||
At $15.42 the stock is 36.2% below the $21.00 analyst target against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 2.41, with analyst upside of 51% and a breakout setup.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $21.00 target while holding above the stop.
CounterA biotech without product revenue depends on trial outcomes, so an analyst target can collapse on a single failed readout.
The business is pre-revenue and cash-burning, with FCF negative, quarterly revenue at $0 in recent periods, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, so quality is 2.1.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue begins to appear near the $65M next-quarter estimate and cash burn narrows.
CounterClinical-stage biotechs are valued on pipeline probability, so conventional quality scores understate asset value.
Quarterly EPS losses of -0.73, -0.78, -0.69 and -0.90 across the last 4 quarters, with 2 beats and 2 misses, show persistent losses that are not narrowing.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly loss per share narrows below $0.60 as revenue starts.
CounterRising R&D spending ahead of launch is intentional, and the losses are funded by a balance sheet that may hold enough cash.
Momentum is strong at 7.3/10, with rising OBV volume accumulation, price above the 200-day average, and institutions accumulating.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5.
CounterA 6.2% gap down shows momentum can reverse quickly, and biotech rallies are prone to sharp pullbacks.
Short interest is high at 15% and implied volatility is 91%, with price above the $12 max-pain level, indicating a heavily contested and volatile stock.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 10% as clinical or commercial milestones are met.
CounterHigh short interest can fuel squeezes on positive news, so the same positioning that signals risk also enables sharp upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.4 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 15%
- ▸High IV: 96%
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:118d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.27
Upside
+34.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.27.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.0, and Technical at 3.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Upside Breakout
Trip ifPrice falls below the stop level 15% under $15.42 (about $13.11).
- P2Cash Burning No Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue stays below $10M by 2027-03-01 versus the $65M estimate.
- P3Widening Quarterly Losses
Trip ifQuarterly loss per share widens to more than -$1.00.
- P4Accumulation Above Trend
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day average with momentum score below 4.0.
- P5High Short Interest Volatility
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% from the current 15%.