Value
8.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
BGR · Why this verdict
Why BlackRock Energy and Resources (BGR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BlackRock Energy and Resources offers a 6.8% dividend, best-in-class margins and positive momentum, but declining revenue and a price near its 52-week high leave little room to add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The 6.8% dividend with a safety score of 9.0 provides substantial income and supports holding the position. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained at or near the current rate through the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterDistributions from a resource-focused fund depend on commodity-linked income and can be cut when that income falls. | ||
Momentum at 7.2 is positive, with rising on-balance volume and the price above the 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum stays above 5.5 over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe price is only 1.2% below its 52-week high, so further gains may be limited. | ||
Peer comparison shows best-in-class margins and superior ROE, with a quality rank of 9.2 out of 10. Peer-rank breakdown | Margins stay above peer levels over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMargin scores of 10.0 may reflect fund accounting rather than operating strength. | ||
Revenue is declining at -6%, which scores 1.1 for growth and limits capital appreciation. Growth breakdown | Revenue declines slow and return to positive growth. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a fund, revenue tracks commodity prices and a recovery in energy prices could reverse it quickly. | ||
The 6.8% dividend with a safety score of 9.0 provides substantial income and supports holding the position.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained at or near the current rate through the next four quarters.
CounterDistributions from a resource-focused fund depend on commodity-linked income and can be cut when that income falls.
Momentum at 7.2 is positive, with rising on-balance volume and the price above the 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum stays above 5.5 over the next two quarters.
CounterThe price is only 1.2% below its 52-week high, so further gains may be limited.
Peer comparison shows best-in-class margins and superior ROE, with a quality rank of 9.2 out of 10.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above peer levels over 12 months.
CounterMargin scores of 10.0 may reflect fund accounting rather than operating strength.
Revenue is declining at -6%, which scores 1.1 for growth and limits capital appreciation.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue declines slow and return to positive growth.
CounterFor a fund, revenue tracks commodity prices and a recovery in energy prices could reverse it quickly.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.2 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.5 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
1.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 8.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 9.2 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
Catalyst
9.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 6.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.6; weakest: Growth at 1.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.6, Catalyst at 9.0, and Value at 8.0; the weakest are Growth at 1.1, Technical at 4.1, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Dividend Yield
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 5% from the current 6.8%.
- P2Positive Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 7.2.
- P3Best In Class Margins
Trip ifPeer quality rank falls below 5.0 from the current 9.2.
- P4Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.