Value
8.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
BGR · Why this verdict
Why BlackRock Energy and Resources (BGR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BlackRock Energy and Resources is a small ($0.4B) income vehicle paying a 7.0% dividend with strong peer-ranked ROE and institutional accumulation, but revenue is declining 6% and momentum is weak at 3.6.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The fund pays a 7.0% dividend with a dividend safety score of 9.0, supporting an income-led return. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend yield stays above 6% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDividend safety confidence is only 0.25, and a payout tied to energy-sector income and distributions can be cut if energy prices fall. | ||
The fund shows a superior ROE versus peers and an attractive P/E, with a peer quality rank of 9.0 out of 10. Peer-rank breakdown | Peer quality rank stays above 7.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.9 and the current ratio only 1.5, so the return on equity may reflect leverage rather than operating strength. | ||
Revenue is declining 6% and the growth score is only 1.1, the weakest dimension. Growth breakdown | Revenue decline narrows to better than -2% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterIncome for a fund-like structure tracks energy asset prices, so a revenue decline can reverse quickly with commodity prices. | ||
Institutions are accumulating, with a holder change score of 10.0, while there is no net insider activity. Insider breakdown | Institutional ownership keeps rising over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsider activity is zero and institutional buying in a $0.4B small cap can be thin and easily reversed. | ||
Momentum scores 3.6/10 with falling on-balance volume, although RSI at 31 marks an uptrend pullback and the price is above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 as RSI rebounds from 31. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling volume with a stop only 3.5% below the price means a small further decline would break the setup. | ||
The fund pays a 7.0% dividend with a dividend safety score of 9.0, supporting an income-led return.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend yield stays above 6% over the next 12 months.
CounterDividend safety confidence is only 0.25, and a payout tied to energy-sector income and distributions can be cut if energy prices fall.
The fund shows a superior ROE versus peers and an attractive P/E, with a peer quality rank of 9.0 out of 10.
↑ImprovingPeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Peer quality rank stays above 7.0.
CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.9 and the current ratio only 1.5, so the return on equity may reflect leverage rather than operating strength.
Revenue is declining 6% and the growth score is only 1.1, the weakest dimension.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue decline narrows to better than -2% YoY.
CounterIncome for a fund-like structure tracks energy asset prices, so a revenue decline can reverse quickly with commodity prices.
Institutions are accumulating, with a holder change score of 10.0, while there is no net insider activity.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional ownership keeps rising over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider activity is zero and institutional buying in a $0.4B small cap can be thin and easily reversed.
Momentum scores 3.6/10 with falling on-balance volume, although RSI at 31 marks an uptrend pullback and the price is above its 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 as RSI rebounds from 31.
CounterFalling volume with a stop only 3.5% below the price means a small further decline would break the setup.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.2 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.5 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
1.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.8 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
Catalyst
9.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 7.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+12.4%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Catalyst at 9.0; weakest: Growth at 1.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 9.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.9, and Technical at 8.8; the weakest are Growth at 1.1, Momentum at 2.6, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Dividend Income
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 5% from current 7.0%.
- P2Superior Roe Versus Peers
Trip ifPeer quality rank falls below 5.0 from current 9.0.
- P3Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds -15% YoY from current -6%.
- P4Institutional Accumulation
Trip ifHolder change score falls below 4.0 from current 10.0.
- P5Weak Momentum Pullback
Trip ifPrice falls below the $16.18 stop level from current $16.77.