Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
BEAM · Why this verdict
Why Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Beam Therapeutics is a cash-burning biotech that depends on one pipeline asset (risto-cel), with 39% short interest and earnings due in 2 days, offset by 57.8% upside to the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company depends on one pipeline asset, risto-cel, so a clinical or regulatory setback would damage the thesis. Bear case | Pipeline progress on risto-cel supports the analyst target over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBinary biotech outcomes mean a failure on the lead asset could remove much of the value. | ||
Free cash flow is -155% of revenue and the Piotroski F-Score is a weak 3/9, giving a quality score of only 1.8. Quality breakdown | Cash burn as a share of revenue narrows materially over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued burn will require new financing, which would dilute shareholders. | ||
EPS shows 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters, and quarterly revenue is lumpy at $0.5M in June 2026 versus $114.1M in December 2025. Earnings | EPS meets or beats consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCollaboration revenue is irregular, so quarterly beats and misses say little about the underlying program value. | ||
The $42.96 analyst target is 57.8% above the $27.23 price, while short interest is 39% and implied volatility is 93%. Sentiment breakdown | Price moves toward the $42.96 analyst target within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy short interest of 39% shows many investors are betting against the analysts' view. | ||
Insiders sold about $1.19M of stock in 90 days (3 sells, 0 buys) and the price is below its 200-day average, which slopes down 1.6% per 30 days. Insider | Insider selling stops and the price recovers above the 200-day average over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume suggests accumulation that could signal a turn. | ||
The company depends on one pipeline asset, risto-cel, so a clinical or regulatory setback would damage the thesis.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Pipeline progress on risto-cel supports the analyst target over 12 months.
CounterBinary biotech outcomes mean a failure on the lead asset could remove much of the value.
Free cash flow is -155% of revenue and the Piotroski F-Score is a weak 3/9, giving a quality score of only 1.8.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn as a share of revenue narrows materially over 12 months.
CounterContinued burn will require new financing, which would dilute shareholders.
EPS shows 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters, and quarterly revenue is lumpy at $0.5M in June 2026 versus $114.1M in December 2025.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterCollaboration revenue is irregular, so quarterly beats and misses say little about the underlying program value.
The $42.96 analyst target is 57.8% above the $27.23 price, while short interest is 39% and implied volatility is 93%.
↓DeterioratingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $42.96 analyst target within 12 months.
CounterHeavy short interest of 39% shows many investors are betting against the analysts' view.
Insiders sold about $1.19M of stock in 90 days (3 sells, 0 buys) and the price is below its 200-day average, which slopes down 1.6% per 30 days.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stops and the price recovers above the 200-day average over 12 months.
CounterRising on-balance volume suggests accumulation that could signal a turn.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -155% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.1 |
| Analyst rating | 8.5 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 88%
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,193,310 (0.045% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 0.2 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 3.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.6 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 39%
- ▸High IV: 89%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.5>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
5.17
Upside
+63.2%
Downside
12.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Sentiment at 7.5 and asymmetric R:R of 5.17.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Catalyst at 6.6, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 1.8, Peer rank at 2.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Single Asset Pipeline
Trip ifAny setback on risto-cel causes the share price to fall more than 40% in one session from $27.23.
- P2Heavy Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow burn exceeds 200% of revenue from the current 155%.
- P3Lumpy Revenue Mixed Earnings
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Upside High Short Interest
Trip ifPrice falls below the $25.32 stop level, a drop of more than 7% from $27.23.
- P5Insider Selling Downtrend
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $3M over a rolling 90 days.