Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 2.5 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 5.02
BDC · Why this verdict
Why Belden (BDC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Belden is growing revenue 38% YoY with a 24.5% gap to the analyst target and a strong Piotroski score, but cash conversion is weak and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with 15% short interest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 38% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $698.2M to $966.0M over the past year. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $900M and growth above 15% YoY over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe latest quarter jumped from $750.2M to $966.0M, which may reflect a one-time step-up rather than sustained organic growth. | ||
The $131.54 analyst target sits 24.5% above the $105.70 price, with a forward P/E of 10.5x. Valuation breakdown | Price moves toward the $131.54 analyst target within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA PEG of 4.38 means growth is not cheaply priced, and analyst coverage is light. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow only 32% of net income, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion rises above 60% of net income over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPersistently low cash conversion would mean reported earnings are not turning into cash for shareholders. | ||
The price is below its 200-day average, which slopes down 1.3% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume, 15% short interest and a put/call ratio of 1.75. Key risks | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA risk score of only 3.0 and bearish options positioning show the market sees further downside risk. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 6.5%, though the latest quarter was in line. Earnings | EPS meets or beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe latest quarter's surprise was -0.07%, so the beat trend may be flattening. | ||
Revenue is growing 38% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $698.2M to $966.0M over the past year.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $900M and growth above 15% YoY over 12 months.
CounterThe latest quarter jumped from $750.2M to $966.0M, which may reflect a one-time step-up rather than sustained organic growth.
The $131.54 analyst target sits 24.5% above the $105.70 price, with a forward P/E of 10.5x.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $131.54 analyst target within 12 months.
CounterA PEG of 4.38 means growth is not cheaply priced, and analyst coverage is light.
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow only 32% of net income, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion rises above 60% of net income over 12 months.
CounterPersistently low cash conversion would mean reported earnings are not turning into cash for shareholders.
The price is below its 200-day average, which slopes down 1.3% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume, 15% short interest and a put/call ratio of 1.75.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average over 12 months.
CounterA risk score of only 3.0 and bearish options positioning show the market sees further downside risk.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 6.5%, though the latest quarter was in line.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe latest quarter's surprise was -0.07%, so the beat trend may be flattening.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.3 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 2.6 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 32% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $217,341 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.4 |
| days to cover | 0.5 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 2.7 |
- ▸High short interest: 15%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.09
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.79
Upside
+25.1%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.79 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.0, Quality at 4.2, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside Moderate Valuation
Trip ifAnalyst upside falls below 8% from the current 24.5%.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 20% from the current 32%.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Short Interest
Trip ifPrice falls below the $98.30 stop level, a drop of more than 7% from $105.70.
- P5Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.