Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 2.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 4.45
- ▸Attractively valued
BDC · Why this verdict
Why Belden (BDC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Belden has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and offers roughly 12% upside to analyst targets at a reasonable forward multiple, but a confirmed price downtrend, free cash flow converting at only 34% of net income, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 create meaningful headwinds that the earnings record alone cannot overcome.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 carries an explicit leverage penalty, reducing financial flexibility at a time when operating momentum is already under pressure from weak growth and a price downtrend. Bear case | Debt-to-equity falls below 0.7 over the next four quarters, restoring balance sheet flexibility and removing the leverage discount from the investment case. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA D/E of 1.1 is manageable for an industrial technology company with recurring revenue streams, and a current ratio of 7.3 indicates ample near-term liquidity to service obligations without stress. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself sloping down at roughly 2% per month, indicating a confirmed price downtrend that typically precedes further technical pressure before any recovery. Momentum breakdown | The 30-day moving average slope recovers above 0% and the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions, signaling that the downtrend has reversed. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross with an improving MACD and RSI at 58 is a classic early recovery signal; the downtrend may be closer to bottoming than to accelerating, making current prices an attractive entry for investors willing to look through the technical overhang. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats with an average surprise of roughly 5% demonstrate steady execution above analyst models, providing a fundamental floor under the thesis even as price momentum has weakened. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six or more quarters and the average surprise remains above 3% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 5% average surprise is solid but not exceptional; with weak revenue growth noted and a challenging technical backdrop, a single miss could trigger disproportionate selling given the existing downtrend. | ||
Free cash flow is converting at only 34% of net income — flagged as a red flag — indicating that reported earnings are not translating into proportionate cash generation and raising questions about earnings quality. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income recovers above 80% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming that the conversion gap is closing rather than structural. | →Stable |
| CounterA low FCF-to-net-income ratio can reflect timing differences in working capital or elevated near-term investment that normalizes; the strong Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 suggests the broader financial picture remains sound. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 carries an explicit leverage penalty, reducing financial flexibility at a time when operating momentum is already under pressure from weak growth and a price downtrend.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity falls below 0.7 over the next four quarters, restoring balance sheet flexibility and removing the leverage discount from the investment case.
CounterA D/E of 1.1 is manageable for an industrial technology company with recurring revenue streams, and a current ratio of 7.3 indicates ample near-term liquidity to service obligations without stress.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself sloping down at roughly 2% per month, indicating a confirmed price downtrend that typically precedes further technical pressure before any recovery.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 30-day moving average slope recovers above 0% and the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions, signaling that the downtrend has reversed.
CounterA death cross with an improving MACD and RSI at 58 is a classic early recovery signal; the downtrend may be closer to bottoming than to accelerating, making current prices an attractive entry for investors willing to look through the technical overhang.
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats with an average surprise of roughly 5% demonstrate steady execution above analyst models, providing a fundamental floor under the thesis even as price momentum has weakened.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six or more quarters and the average surprise remains above 3% over the next 12 months.
CounterA 5% average surprise is solid but not exceptional; with weak revenue growth noted and a challenging technical backdrop, a single miss could trigger disproportionate selling given the existing downtrend.
Free cash flow is converting at only 34% of net income — flagged as a red flag — indicating that reported earnings are not translating into proportionate cash generation and raising questions about earnings quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income recovers above 80% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming that the conversion gap is closing rather than structural.
CounterA low FCF-to-net-income ratio can reflect timing differences in working capital or elevated near-term investment that normalizes; the strong Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 suggests the broader financial picture remains sound.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 4.2 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 2.8 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 34% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 6.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 48%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 3.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.8 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 0.6 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.92
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Above max pain $85
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.58
Upside
+29.0%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.0B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Sentiment at 7.8 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.8, Insider at 7.3, and Value at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Growth at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.58 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Below 200ma Confirmed Downtrend
Trip if30-day MA slope rises above 0% from the current -2.0% and price closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions.
- P2Consistent Earnings Execution Four Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Fcf Quality Red Flag Low Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 80% for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 34%.
- P4Leverage Constraint Debt Equity 1point1
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 0.7 from the current 1.1 for 2 consecutive quarter-end measurements.