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BCALCalifornia BanCorpSell4.8·$20.86-1.46%
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California BanCorp (BCAL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.86 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away).

California BanCorp operates as the bank holding company for California Bank of Commerce, N.A. that provides various financial products to individuals, professionals, and small- to medium-sized businesses in California, the United States. The company offers checking, savings, and... Read more

$20.86+1.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#216 of 225 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.92%Payout10.93%sustainable
Stop $19.88Target $21.07(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$22.17+6.3%3 analysts
$21.07our TP
$20.86price
$22.17mean
$24

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.86 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.0% away)
Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.4
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$671M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn32.4%
ROE10.8%
Rev Growth-8.2%
Beta0.29
Dividend1.92%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -8.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.5
Earnings Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -8%
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.26%=MODERATEMomentum 6.7>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.79Resistance $21.50

Price Targets

$20
$21
A.Upside+1.0%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BCAL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.86 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $19.88. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BCAL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.07 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $19.88. Stop-loss: $19.88.

What are the risks of investing in BCAL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.0% away); Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is BCAL overvalued or undervalued?

California BanCorp trades at a P/E of 11.4 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BCAL?

9 analysts cover BCAL with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $22.

What does California BanCorp do?California BanCorp operates as the bank holding company for California Bank of Commerce, N.A. that provides various...

California BanCorp operates as the bank holding company for California Bank of Commerce, N.A. that provides various financial products to individuals, professionals, and small- to medium-sized businesses in California, the United States. The company offers checking, savings, and money market accounts; and certificates of deposit. It also provides business loans, including construction and land development loans, commercial and industrial loans, small business administration loans, and consumer loans, as well as commercial real estate (CRE) loans comprising one- to four-family and multifamily residential loans, owner-occupied CRE loans, and non-owner-occupied CRE loans; lines of credit; home equity lines of credit; and letters of credit. In addition, the company offers treasury management; merchant services; escrow and sub-accounting solutions; cash vault, sweep accounts, and remote deposit capture services; online and mobile banking services; and ACH origination, courier, and lockbox processing services. It serves businesses, business owners and their trusts, limited liability corporations, business partnerships, associations, organizations, and governmental authorities, as well as the manufacturing, wholesale distribution, professional services, commercial real estate, healthcare, hospitality, commercial contractor, and non-profit organization sectors. The company was formerly known as Southern California Bancorp and changed its name to California BanCorp in August 2024. California BanCorp was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

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