Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
BBIO · Why this verdict
Why BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BridgeBio is growing revenue 193% YoY with a Rule of 40 reading of 161 and 28.8% upside to the analyst target, but it is cash-burning, overbought at RSI 76 and dependent on two products.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is -32% of revenue and operating and net margin components score 0.0, so overall quality is only 4.4/10 despite a 10.0 gross margin score. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should improve to above -10% of revenue within 12 months as revenue scales. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA current ratio component of 7.3 shows the balance sheet can fund burn while the launch ramps. | ||
Revenue is growing 193% year-over-year, the growth score is 10/10 and the company is ranked an industry growth leader, with a Rule of 40 reading of 161. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth should stay above 50% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and growth from a small launch base can fade quickly once initial demand is served. | ||
Upside to the $96.53 analyst target is 28.8% against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 1.92 at $74.95. Upside pct | Price should move toward the analyst target within 12 months without breaching the $70.29 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterBiotechnology is a binary industry and analyst targets can be cut sharply on a clinical or commercial setback. | ||
Product concentration in Attruby and Beyonttra is flagged as 1 HIGH concentration risk, so revenue depends on two products. Bear case | Revenue from the two lead products should keep growing while the pipeline adds new revenue sources. | →Stable |
| CounterCompetitive launches or a pricing or label change on either product would hit most of the revenue base. | ||
Momentum is strong at 8.3/10 but RSI is 76, overbought, and a flat or negative 200-day slope is flagged as late-cycle distribution risk despite a 2.0x volume surge. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool below 65 without price losing the 200-day average over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterVolume accumulation with rising OBV and institutions accumulating point to genuine demand, not distribution. | ||
Free cash flow is -32% of revenue and operating and net margin components score 0.0, so overall quality is only 4.4/10 despite a 10.0 gross margin score.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should improve to above -10% of revenue within 12 months as revenue scales.
CounterA current ratio component of 7.3 shows the balance sheet can fund burn while the launch ramps.
Revenue is growing 193% year-over-year, the growth score is 10/10 and the company is ranked an industry growth leader, with a Rule of 40 reading of 161.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth should stay above 50% over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and growth from a small launch base can fade quickly once initial demand is served.
Upside to the $96.53 analyst target is 28.8% against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 1.92 at $74.95.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target within 12 months without breaching the $70.29 stop.
CounterBiotechnology is a binary industry and analyst targets can be cut sharply on a clinical or commercial setback.
Product concentration in Attruby and Beyonttra is flagged as 1 HIGH concentration risk, so revenue depends on two products.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from the two lead products should keep growing while the pipeline adds new revenue sources.
CounterCompetitive launches or a pricing or label change on either product would hit most of the revenue base.
Momentum is strong at 8.3/10 but RSI is 76, overbought, and a flat or negative 200-day slope is flagged as late-cycle distribution risk despite a 2.0x volume surge.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool below 65 without price losing the 200-day average over the next 12 months.
CounterVolume accumulation with rising OBV and institutions accumulating point to genuine demand, not distribution.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -30% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: 162 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 193% YoY
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 82 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.4 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $4,418,098 (0.030% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 3.9 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:112d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.99
Upside
+29.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 2.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.0, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.8, Catalyst at 3.0, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.99 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 50% from current 193%.
- P2Analyst Upside Moderate Asymmetry
Trip ifUpside to analyst target drops below 10% from current 28.8%.
- P3Two Product Concentration
Trip ifAttruby and Beyonttra revenue falls below 80% of total from current dependence on 2 products.
- P4Cash Burn Low Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow stays below -40% of revenue for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P5Overbought Late Cycle Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $70.29 stop, more than 6% under the current $74.95.