Value
7.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| PEG | 6.2 |
- ▸PEG: 1.21
- ▸Attractively valued
BBDO · Why this verdict
Why Banco Bradesco (BBDO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Banco Bradesco's second share class is attractively valued with an 8.7% dividend and strong margins, sitting in an oversold bounce setup (RSI 13) after a 41% drawdown, but momentum is weak at 3.0/10 and no analyst target is available.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A PEG of 1.21 with a price-to-sales score of 10.0 and an 8.7% dividend rated 8.0 for safety make the shares attractively valued with strong income. Valuation breakdown | The dividend yield should stay above 7% and PEG below 1.5 over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterValuation confidence is only 0.5 because forward P/E is missing, and a high yield after a 41% drawdown can signal doubts about payout. | ||
The setup is an oversold bounce with RSI 13, near the lower Bollinger band and a volume surge, after a 41% drawdown from the 52-week high. Chart pattern detection | RSI should recover above 40 and price move toward the $4.03 resistance level within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling OBV shows volume distribution, and a capitulation reading can persist while selling continues. | ||
Momentum is 3.0/10 with the price below its 200-day average, which is still rising 2.3% per 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5 within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD scores only 0.7, so the pullback could extend before the trend resumes. | ||
Margins are strong at 27% with earnings growth scoring 8.7 and revenue growth 5.6, though overall quality is 5.1/10. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 22% and earnings growth above 5% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterROA scores 0.7 and Piotroski F-Score 4.4, so profitability on assets and balance-sheet momentum are weak. | ||
The $4.03 target is resistance-based with 66.5% implied upside against 4.1% downside to the stop, and no analyst target or rating data is available. Upside pct | Price should rise toward the $4.03 resistance level over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA resistance-based target is a chart level rather than a fundamental estimate, and sentiment confidence is only 0.67. | ||
A PEG of 1.21 with a price-to-sales score of 10.0 and an 8.7% dividend rated 8.0 for safety make the shares attractively valued with strong income.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend yield should stay above 7% and PEG below 1.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterValuation confidence is only 0.5 because forward P/E is missing, and a high yield after a 41% drawdown can signal doubts about payout.
The setup is an oversold bounce with RSI 13, near the lower Bollinger band and a volume surge, after a 41% drawdown from the 52-week high.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 and price move toward the $4.03 resistance level within 12 months.
CounterFalling OBV shows volume distribution, and a capitulation reading can persist while selling continues.
Momentum is 3.0/10 with the price below its 200-day average, which is still rising 2.3% per 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5 within 12 months.
CounterMACD scores only 0.7, so the pullback could extend before the trend resumes.
Margins are strong at 27% with earnings growth scoring 8.7 and revenue growth 5.6, though overall quality is 5.1/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 22% and earnings growth above 5% over 12 months.
CounterROA scores 0.7 and Piotroski F-Score 4.4, so profitability on assets and balance-sheet momentum are weak.
The $4.03 target is resistance-based with 66.5% implied upside against 4.1% downside to the stop, and no analyst target or rating data is available.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should rise toward the $4.03 resistance level over the next 12 months.
CounterA resistance-based target is a chart level rather than a fundamental estimate, and sentiment confidence is only 0.67.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 9.4 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 15, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 2.9 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-5.3%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.7 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 1.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -5.3% (30d)
- ▸Dividend: 8.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+71.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 15, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -43% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.7; weakest: Momentum at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, and Growth at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Sentiment at 4.2, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation High Dividend
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 6% from current 8.7%.
- P2Oversold Bounce Setup
Trip ifRSI stays below 30 for more than 3 months from current 13.
- P3Weak Momentum Below 200 Day
Trip ifThe 200-day slope falls below 0% from current +2.3% per 30 days.
- P4Strong Margins Moderate Growth
Trip ifMargins fall below 20% from current 27%.
- P5Resistance Target No Analyst Coverage
Trip ifPrice falls below the $2.32 stop, more than 4.1% under the current $2.42.