Value
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.5x
BAX · Why this verdict
Why Baxter International (BAX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Baxter trades at an attractive forward P/E of 11.3x with strong earnings growth and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but quality is 3.4/10 with a negative operating margin, and only 2.4% upside to the analyst target remains at $23.00.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Operating margin is -3.3% and free cash flow is negative, with value-trap signals on 3 of 5 checks, so reported quality is poor. Warnings | Operating margin should turn positive above 0% and free cash flow turn positive within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and earnings growth scoring 10/10 suggest the trend is improving off a depressed base. | ||
Upside to the $23.56 analyst target is only 2.4% against 8.3% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.29 at $23.00. Upside pct | Price should pull back toward the $21.82 support or the analyst target should rise within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA recent analyst upgrade detected in the news could lift targets, making the current gap temporary. | ||
Forward P/E of 11.3x and a price-to-sales score of 9.6 mark the stock as attractively valued, and earnings growth scores 10.0/10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 14x as earnings recover over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNet margin and ROE components are 0.0, so cheap forward earnings may rest on estimates that have not yet materialized. | ||
Concentration risk is high on single-source suppliers (1 HIGH, 2 MED risks) and the company has no competitive moat. Bear case | Single-source supplier exposure should not trigger a supply disruption in the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMedical supply chains often use qualified sole-source vendors without disruption, and regulatory barriers protect the product base. | ||
Implied volatility is high at 122% while the stock is an uptrend pullback at RSI 38 above its 200-day average, though falling OBV shows volume distribution. Momentum breakdown | Implied volatility should fall below 70% while price holds above the 200-day average over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFalling OBV and a momentum score of 4.3 suggest the pullback may deepen before it ends. | ||
Operating margin is -3.3% and free cash flow is negative, with value-trap signals on 3 of 5 checks, so reported quality is poor.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Operating margin should turn positive above 0% and free cash flow turn positive within 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and earnings growth scoring 10/10 suggest the trend is improving off a depressed base.
Upside to the $23.56 analyst target is only 2.4% against 8.3% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.29 at $23.00.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should pull back toward the $21.82 support or the analyst target should rise within 12 months.
CounterA recent analyst upgrade detected in the news could lift targets, making the current gap temporary.
Forward P/E of 11.3x and a price-to-sales score of 9.6 mark the stock as attractively valued, and earnings growth scores 10.0/10.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 14x as earnings recover over the next 12 months.
CounterNet margin and ROE components are 0.0, so cheap forward earnings may rest on estimates that have not yet materialized.
Concentration risk is high on single-source suppliers (1 HIGH, 2 MED risks) and the company has no competitive moat.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Single-source supplier exposure should not trigger a supply disruption in the next 12 months.
CounterMedical supply chains often use qualified sole-source vendors without disruption, and regulatory barriers protect the product base.
Implied volatility is high at 122% while the stock is an uptrend pullback at RSI 38 above its 200-day average, though falling OBV shows volume distribution.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied volatility should fall below 70% while price holds above the 200-day average over the next 12 months.
CounterFalling OBV and a momentum score of 4.3 suggest the pullback may deepen before it ends.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.7 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $15
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:99d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.74
Upside
-11.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.7=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of -0.74.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.8, Growth at 6.9, and Value at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.4, Quality at 3.4, and Technical at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifUpside to analyst target stays below 3% while downside to the stop exceeds 8% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Margin Compression Negative Cash Flow
Trip ifOperating margin stays below -3% for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P3Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 16x from current 11.3x.
- P4Supplier Concentration And Weak Moat
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from current 3.4.
- P5High Implied Volatility Uptrend Pullback
Trip ifPrice falls below the $21.82 stop, more than 5% under the current $23.00.