Value
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.90
BAM · Why this verdict
Why Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brookfield Asset Management is a high-quality compounder with a wide moat, elite Rule of 40 and 61% growth, but at $48.26 only 4.1% upside to the analyst target remains against 9.0% downside to the stop.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is high, with ROE of 27%, margins of 49%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 20% and margins above 40% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree-cash-flow quality scores 6.8 and current ratio 4.8, so cash conversion is only moderate for a business with such headline margins. | ||
Growth is strong at 61% year-over-year and the Rule of 40 reads 107, an elite level, with the company ranked an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year growth should stay above 25% so the Rule of 40 stays above 60. | →Stable |
| CounterA 61% growth rate is unlikely to repeat, and fee-related earnings in asset management can slow quickly if fundraising weakens. | ||
Upside to the $50.23 analyst target is only 4.1% against 9.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.45 that leaves little margin at $48.26. Bear case | Price should pull back toward the $46.17 entry level or the analyst target should rise within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag strong growth, and a breakout above resistance with MACD bullish could carry the price through the target. | ||
Forward P/E of 22.4x with a PEG of 0.86 prices in growth, and value scores only 4.5/10. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should keep PEG below 1.0 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIf growth normalizes from 61%, a 22.4x forward multiple becomes expensive for an asset manager. | ||
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap, high yield but unsafe, with dividend safety scoring only 3.0/10. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety should improve above 6.0 within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAsset managers pay out of fee-related earnings, so a payout flagged unsafe by a simple metric may still be well covered. | ||
Quality is high, with ROE of 27%, margins of 49%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 20% and margins above 40% over the next 12 months.
CounterFree-cash-flow quality scores 6.8 and current ratio 4.8, so cash conversion is only moderate for a business with such headline margins.
Growth is strong at 61% year-over-year and the Rule of 40 reads 107, an elite level, with the company ranked an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year growth should stay above 25% so the Rule of 40 stays above 60.
CounterA 61% growth rate is unlikely to repeat, and fee-related earnings in asset management can slow quickly if fundraising weakens.
Upside to the $50.23 analyst target is only 4.1% against 9.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.45 that leaves little margin at $48.26.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Price should pull back toward the $46.17 entry level or the analyst target should rise within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets lag strong growth, and a breakout above resistance with MACD bullish could carry the price through the target.
Forward P/E of 22.4x with a PEG of 0.86 prices in growth, and value scores only 4.5/10.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should keep PEG below 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterIf growth normalizes from 61%, a 22.4x forward multiple becomes expensive for an asset manager.
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap, high yield but unsafe, with dividend safety scoring only 3.0/10.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety should improve above 6.0 within 12 months.
CounterAsset managers pay out of fee-related earnings, so a payout flagged unsafe by a simple metric may still be well covered.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.9 |
| ROA | 8.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Strong margins: 49%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 61% YoY
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 81)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 81 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.9 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.91
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $54.11 vs the analyst target $50.23: -7.2% upside; No upside left.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|SANITY:BUY+upside<=0Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.5>=7.5+momentum=7.2>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.48
Upside
-7.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 8.5 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of -0.48 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.5, and Momentum at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Value at 3.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 of 9 from current 7.
- P2Elite Growth Rule Of 40
Trip ifYear-over-year growth falls below 15% from current 61%.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $43.75 stop, more than 9% under the current $48.26.
- P4Full Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 30x from current 22.4x.
- P5Unsafe Dividend Yield
Trip ifDividend safety score stays below 3.0 for 4 quarters.