Value
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| PEG | 6.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.21
BAM · Why this verdict
Why Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business has earned a wide economic moat designation backed by 50% operating margins, a Rule of 40 score of 81, and best-in-class return on equity and margins versus sector peers — an institutional-quality franchise that has compounded returns across multiple market cycles. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 40% and revenue growth stays above 15% year-over-year for the next four quarters, preserving the quality and moat credentials. | →Stable |
| CounterAn asset management business's moat is sensitive to performance cycles — if fee-earning assets under management decline in a risk-off environment, margins can compress rapidly given the high-fixed-cost operating structure. | ||
Revenue grew 24% year-over-year, placing the company among the highest-growth names in its sector, with peer analysis confirming both best-in-class margins and superior return on equity relative to the competitive set. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least two of the next four reported quarters, validating that the growth engine is durable rather than a one-period tailwind. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings delivery has been uneven — one miss and one in-line result in the last four quarters — suggesting that strong revenue growth is not yet translating cleanly into consistent earnings beats, which limits the re-rating catalyst. | ||
At a forward P/E of 22.1x and with only about 6% headroom to analyst consensus targets, the stock looks fully valued — a rich multiple that can persist but leaves almost no margin of safety if earnings growth decelerates or the multiple compresses. Bear case | Forward P/E compresses below 18x as the stock consolidates or earnings estimates rise faster than the price, restoring a more attractive entry point for additional capital. | →Stable |
| CounterPremium franchises with wide moats and 50% margins historically sustain elevated multiples for extended periods; waiting for valuation compression may mean missing continued compounding at prices that look expensive by standard metrics today. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at 3.4% over the last 30 days — a confirmed downtrend that historically represents a poor timing environment for adding to positions even in high-quality names. Momentum breakdown | This pillar is falsified — and timing improves — when price closes above the 200-day moving average and holds there for 4 consecutive weeks, reversing the current slope. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality and momentum metrics both cleared the criteria for a death-cross exemption, indicating the downtrend is not accompanied by underlying fundamental deterioration; for long-term holders the trend matters far less than the compounding trajectory. | ||
The business has earned a wide economic moat designation backed by 50% operating margins, a Rule of 40 score of 81, and best-in-class return on equity and margins versus sector peers — an institutional-quality franchise that has compounded returns across multiple market cycles.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 40% and revenue growth stays above 15% year-over-year for the next four quarters, preserving the quality and moat credentials.
CounterAn asset management business's moat is sensitive to performance cycles — if fee-earning assets under management decline in a risk-off environment, margins can compress rapidly given the high-fixed-cost operating structure.
Revenue grew 24% year-over-year, placing the company among the highest-growth names in its sector, with peer analysis confirming both best-in-class margins and superior return on equity relative to the competitive set.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least two of the next four reported quarters, validating that the growth engine is durable rather than a one-period tailwind.
CounterEarnings delivery has been uneven — one miss and one in-line result in the last four quarters — suggesting that strong revenue growth is not yet translating cleanly into consistent earnings beats, which limits the re-rating catalyst.
At a forward P/E of 22.1x and with only about 6% headroom to analyst consensus targets, the stock looks fully valued — a rich multiple that can persist but leaves almost no margin of safety if earnings growth decelerates or the multiple compresses.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 18x as the stock consolidates or earnings estimates rise faster than the price, restoring a more attractive entry point for additional capital.
CounterPremium franchises with wide moats and 50% margins historically sustain elevated multiples for extended periods; waiting for valuation compression may mean missing continued compounding at prices that look expensive by standard metrics today.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at 3.4% over the last 30 days — a confirmed downtrend that historically represents a poor timing environment for adding to positions even in high-quality names.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified — and timing improves — when price closes above the 200-day moving average and holds there for 4 consecutive weeks, reversing the current slope.
CounterQuality and momentum metrics both cleared the criteria for a death-cross exemption, indicating the downtrend is not accompanied by underlying fundamental deterioration; for long-term holders the trend matters far less than the compounding trajectory.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brookfield Asset Management has earned a wide economic moat designation with 50% margins, a Rule of 40 score of 81, best-in-class return on equity and margins versus sector peers, and 24% year-over-year revenue growth — a franchise that has compounded returns across cycles — but a forward P/E of 22.1x, a confirmed price downtrend, and a dividend yield with coverage concerns constrain the risk/reward to roughly 1.1 to 1, making this a hold rather than an add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 8.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.8 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 50%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 81 (elite)
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
| EPS growth | 3.1 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 3.7 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.9 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.4>=7.5+momentum=5.4>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
1.23
Upside
+8.9%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.4; weakest: Value at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.4, Sentiment at 6.9, and Growth at 5.8; the weakest are Value at 4.3, Technical at 4.5, and Catalyst at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Elite Operating Margins
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 35% for 2 consecutive quarters, from the current 50% level noted in quality data.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth Vs Peers
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, from the current 24% pace.
- P3Elevated Valuation Constrains Upside
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 16x from the current 22.1x, removing the elevated-valuation constraint on upside.
- P4Price Below Long Term Trend
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average and holds for 4 consecutive weeks, reversing the confirmed downtrend with its current slope of negative 3.4% per 30 days.