Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
- ▸Attractively valued
BABA · Why this verdict
Why Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.0 |
| Op margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 5.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -43% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.2 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 60%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,491,105 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 2.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 6.3 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $85
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Dividend: 87.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:7.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:81d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
- NEWS:LEGAL
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
7.27
Upside
+47.2%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Sentiment at 7.7, and Technical at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Peer rank at 3.1, and Quality at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.