Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.04
- ▸Attractively valued
B · Why this verdict
Why Barrick Mining (B) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Rising on-balance volume combined with a price position above the 200-day moving average indicates steady accumulation — a technical condition that historically precedes sustained upward price moves when paired with improving fundamentals. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues trending higher for the next three months, confirming ongoing institutional demand. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI sits at the mid-range with no directional edge in the near term, and a put/call ratio of 2.32 reflects materially more options-market bearishness than the technical signal implies — a divergence that can resolve sharply to the downside. | ||
The business has earned a wide economic moat designation supported by a 25% return on equity, 32% operating margins, and a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — hallmarks of a durable, high-quality franchise with demonstrated pricing power and capital discipline. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 20% and operating margins remain above 25% over the next four quarters, confirming the moat is intact and the quality profile is not deteriorating. | →Stable |
| CounterGold-mining economics are inherently commodity-driven; elevated options market skepticism — evidenced by a put/call ratio of 2.32 — suggests the market assigns meaningful probability to a reversal in underlying commodity prices, which would directly pressure margins and erode the quality profile. | ||
At a forward P/E of 9.1x and with approximately 21% headroom to analyst consensus targets, the stock screens attractively valued for the quality on offer, with a risk/reward of roughly 3.3 to 1 in your favor. Valuation breakdown | The gap between current price and consensus target narrows as earnings delivery confirms the earnings power; the forward multiple expands toward 12x within the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 2.04 is not cheap in absolute terms; if earnings estimates revise downward — consistent with the single miss in the recent four-quarter history — the valuation buffer compresses quickly and the apparent discount narrows. | ||
The company is delivering 67% year-over-year earnings growth, placing it among the strongest growth profiles in its sector and supporting a re-rating argument from a currently compressed valuation. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year earnings growth remains above 30% for at least two of the next four reported quarters, sustaining the re-rating catalyst. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth at this magnitude is likely amplified by a favorable comparison period; the most recent quarter posted a 5% miss relative to estimates, signaling execution risk if underlying commodity prices normalize or cost pressures emerge. | ||
Rising on-balance volume combined with a price position above the 200-day moving average indicates steady accumulation — a technical condition that historically precedes sustained upward price moves when paired with improving fundamentals.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues trending higher for the next three months, confirming ongoing institutional demand.
CounterRSI sits at the mid-range with no directional edge in the near term, and a put/call ratio of 2.32 reflects materially more options-market bearishness than the technical signal implies — a divergence that can resolve sharply to the downside.
The business has earned a wide economic moat designation supported by a 25% return on equity, 32% operating margins, and a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — hallmarks of a durable, high-quality franchise with demonstrated pricing power and capital discipline.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 20% and operating margins remain above 25% over the next four quarters, confirming the moat is intact and the quality profile is not deteriorating.
CounterGold-mining economics are inherently commodity-driven; elevated options market skepticism — evidenced by a put/call ratio of 2.32 — suggests the market assigns meaningful probability to a reversal in underlying commodity prices, which would directly pressure margins and erode the quality profile.
At a forward P/E of 9.1x and with approximately 21% headroom to analyst consensus targets, the stock screens attractively valued for the quality on offer, with a risk/reward of roughly 3.3 to 1 in your favor.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The gap between current price and consensus target narrows as earnings delivery confirms the earnings power; the forward multiple expands toward 12x within the next four quarters.
CounterA PEG of 2.04 is not cheap in absolute terms; if earnings estimates revise downward — consistent with the single miss in the recent four-quarter history — the valuation buffer compresses quickly and the apparent discount narrows.
The company is delivering 67% year-over-year earnings growth, placing it among the strongest growth profiles in its sector and supporting a re-rating argument from a currently compressed valuation.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year earnings growth remains above 30% for at least two of the next four reported quarters, sustaining the re-rating catalyst.
CounterGrowth at this magnitude is likely amplified by a favorable comparison period; the most recent quarter posted a 5% miss relative to estimates, signaling execution risk if underlying commodity prices normalize or cost pressures emerge.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Barrick Mining carries the hallmarks of a wide-moat franchise — 25% return on equity, 32% margins, and a near-perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — while trading at a forward P/E of 9.1x, leaving roughly 21% headroom to analyst targets and a risk/reward of about 3.3 to 1 in favor of bulls.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.4 |
| ROA | 8.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 25%
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 67% YoY
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=7)
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 4.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.94
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 183.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.64
Upside
+31.8%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.7) with weak momentum (2.2)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.2<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.64.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.7, and Sentiment at 8.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Peer rank at 4.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.64 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Quality Franchise
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters, from the current reported 32% level.
- P2Valuation Discount To Analyst Targets
Trip ifForward earnings estimates fall more than 25% from current levels, reducing the implied upside to consensus below 10%.
- P3Strong Earnings Growth Trajectory
Trip ifYear-over-year earnings growth falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Technical Accumulation Above Trend
Trip ifPrice closes and holds below the 200-day moving average for more than 4 consecutive weeks.