Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.04
- ▸Attractively valued
B · Why this verdict
Why Barrick Mining (B) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Barrick is a high-quality, attractively valued gold miner (forward P/E 8.8x, Piotroski 9/9) with 21.8% upside to the analyst target, but a confirmed downtrend and momentum of 2.6/10 argue for patience before building a position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is 2.6/10, with the price below the 200-day average, a 30-day slope of -1.2% and falling OBV showing volume distribution. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBollinger and support/resistance components score 10.0 and 8.5, hinting the stock is stretched to the downside and due for a bounce. | ||
Barrick shows excellent ROE of 27%, margins of 32%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, marking it as a high-quality business. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 20% and margins above 25% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality shows a warning at 78% FCF/NI, and gold-price-driven margins can reverse quickly. | ||
Forward P/E of 8.8x and a PEG of 0.04 sit alongside 44% year-over-year growth, an attractively valued earnings stream. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should stay above 20% so the forward multiple holds below 12x. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth of 44% reflects a commodity price spike and may not repeat, which would make the low multiple a cyclical-peak illusion. | ||
Upside to the analyst target is 21.8% against 7.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.91 at $37.01. Upside pct | Price should move toward the $45.10 analyst target over 12 months while holding above the $33.13 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets for gold miners track the metal price and can be cut quickly if gold falls. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 1.85 and implied volatility is high at 75%, with earnings due in 8 days, signalling heavy hedging. Risk breakdown | Put/call should normalize below 1.2 and implied volatility fall below 50% after earnings. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings have been mostly beats (2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line over 4 quarters), so the options positioning may overstate downside. | ||
Momentum is 2.6/10, with the price below the 200-day average, a 30-day slope of -1.2% and falling OBV showing volume distribution.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5 within 12 months.
CounterBollinger and support/resistance components score 10.0 and 8.5, hinting the stock is stretched to the downside and due for a bounce.
Barrick shows excellent ROE of 27%, margins of 32%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, marking it as a high-quality business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 20% and margins above 25% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality shows a warning at 78% FCF/NI, and gold-price-driven margins can reverse quickly.
Forward P/E of 8.8x and a PEG of 0.04 sit alongside 44% year-over-year growth, an attractively valued earnings stream.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should stay above 20% so the forward multiple holds below 12x.
CounterGrowth of 44% reflects a commodity price spike and may not repeat, which would make the low multiple a cyclical-peak illusion.
Upside to the analyst target is 21.8% against 7.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.91 at $37.01.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $45.10 analyst target over 12 months while holding above the $33.13 stop.
CounterAnalyst targets for gold miners track the metal price and can be cut quickly if gold falls.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 1.85 and implied volatility is high at 75%, with earnings due in 8 days, signalling heavy hedging.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call should normalize below 1.2 and implied volatility fall below 50% after earnings.
CounterEarnings have been mostly beats (2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line over 4 quarters), so the options positioning may overstate downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.0 |
| ROA | 9.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 78% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 44% YoY
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 9.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.3x at spot < 1.5 minimum; Earnings in 5 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33->V9:POOR_ASYMMETRY|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:2/3
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.9>=7.5+momentum=6.8>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
1.29
Upside
+12.4%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=7.5
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.3<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.29.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.9, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.29 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Wide Moat Miner
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 of 9 from current 9.
- P2Cheap Valuation Strong Growth
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 15x from current 8.8x.
- P3Downtrend Weak Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $33.13 stop, more than 10% under the current $37.01.
- P4Favorable Reward To Risk
Trip ifUpside to analyst target drops below 10% from current 21.8%.
- P5Elevated Options Risk Near Earnings
Trip ifPut/call ratio stays above 2.0 from current 1.85.