American Express (AXP) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $5.42
- Estimate
- $4.50
- Surprise
- +20.4%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $11.23B
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.8 → 6.2/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
American Express (AXP) beat the $4.50 estimate with adjusted EPS of $5.42 — a large 20.4% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.8/10) to Hold at 6.2/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates AXP Hold at 6.2/10.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +20.4% surprise compares with a +7.5% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
- Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
What argues against it
- Thin upside margin: 6.2%
- Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
- Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $313.22
- Price target
- $332.56
- Stop
- $300.18
- Upside to target
- +6.2%
- Reward-to-risk
- 1.1:1
The stock trades at 19.0× trailing but 15.5× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-24 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
AXP at TrendMatrix's latest read
For financials, the EPS print is only half the story: credit costs, reserve builds, and rate sensitivity decide how a quarter actually lands.
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Market cap
- $211.52B
- P/E (fwd)
- 15.5
- P/E (ttm)
- 19.0
- 52-week range
- $290.97–$387.49
- Off 52-week high
- 19.2%
- RSI (14)
- 61
- Volume vs avg
- 1.27×
- Score today
- 6.2/10