Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 6.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.22
AVNT · Why this verdict
Why Avient (AVNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $42.84 is only 1.5% below the $43.50 analyst target against 14.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of just 0.11. Estimated upside | Upside should reopen through target raises or a pullback toward the 200-day entry near $38.08. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts may lift targets after strong results, and a company with a steady beat record can keep rising past a stale target. | ||
RSI of 82 is overbought and on-balance volume is falling, signalling distribution even though price remains above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool below 70 without losing the 200-day average as support. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOverbought readings can persist in strong uptrends, and MACD is at the maximum 10, showing trend strength. | ||
Avient has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 3.56%, showing dependable execution. Earnings track record | Beats should continue, with EPS surprises staying positive through the next 4 reports. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats are small (1.5% to 7.7%) and may reflect conservative estimates; a miss around the earnings date in 3 days could hit a stock priced near its target. | ||
The company shows excellent cash conversion of 155% FCF/NI and a Piotroski score of 9/9, supporting its dividend and balance sheet. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should remain above net income, sustaining the 2.6% dividend yield. | →Stable |
| CounterReturns are weak (ROE score 2.4/10) and the company has no competitive moat, so high conversion may reflect working-capital timing rather than durable economics. | ||
Revenue grew from $866.5M to $917.0M year over year in the June 2026 quarter, but 61.0% of sales fall outside the United States, tying results to foreign demand and currency. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should stay above $850M and trend toward the $859M next-quarter estimate. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSpecialty chemicals demand is cyclical, and heavy international exposure leaves earnings exposed to currency swings and weak overseas industrial activity. | ||
The price of $42.84 is only 1.5% below the $43.50 analyst target against 14.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of just 0.11.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Upside should reopen through target raises or a pullback toward the 200-day entry near $38.08.
CounterAnalysts may lift targets after strong results, and a company with a steady beat record can keep rising past a stale target.
RSI of 82 is overbought and on-balance volume is falling, signalling distribution even though price remains above its 200-day average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool below 70 without losing the 200-day average as support.
CounterOverbought readings can persist in strong uptrends, and MACD is at the maximum 10, showing trend strength.
Avient has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 3.56%, showing dependable execution.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- Beats should continue, with EPS surprises staying positive through the next 4 reports.
CounterBeats are small (1.5% to 7.7%) and may reflect conservative estimates; a miss around the earnings date in 3 days could hit a stock priced near its target.
The company shows excellent cash conversion of 155% FCF/NI and a Piotroski score of 9/9, supporting its dividend and balance sheet.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should remain above net income, sustaining the 2.6% dividend yield.
CounterReturns are weak (ROE score 2.4/10) and the company has no competitive moat, so high conversion may reflect working-capital timing rather than durable economics.
Revenue grew from $866.5M to $917.0M year over year in the June 2026 quarter, but 61.0% of sales fall outside the United States, tying results to foreign demand and currency.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above $850M and trend toward the $859M next-quarter estimate.
CounterSpecialty chemicals demand is cyclical, and heavy international exposure leaves earnings exposed to currency swings and weak overseas industrial activity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 2.6 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 155% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 6.6 |
Momentum
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 8.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 94)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
Insider
5.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (12.1%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:8.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.61
Upside
-9.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.61 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.2, Catalyst at 6.9, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Peer rank at 4.6, and Growth at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income conversion falls below 100% from current 155%.
- P3Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target exceeds 15% from current 1.5% without a price decline.
- P4Overbought Momentum Fading Volume
Trip ifRSI stays above 80 for more than 4 weeks while on-balance volume keeps falling.
- P5Modest Growth International Exposure
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $850M from the latest $917M.