Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.35
ATI · Why this verdict
Why ATI (ATI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ATI has beaten earnings estimates four quarters in a row with 26% YoY growth and 29.9% upside to the analyst target, but heavy aerospace and defense concentration and weak near-term momentum limit conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ATI has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 11.6%. Earnings track record | EPS surprise stays positive at the 2027-02-02 report and beyond. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats may reflect conservative estimates and the latest surprise of 6.8% is the smallest of the run, which could signal fading upside. | ||
Growth is strong at 26% YoY, with earnings growth scoring 10 out of 10 and ROE of 29%. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 43% of net income, a flagged earnings-quality weakness that suggests growth is consuming cash. | ||
Upside to the $215.08 analyst target is 29.9% from $165.59, with reward-to-risk of 2.3 versus 13% downside. Upside pct | Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings growth continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light (9 analysts, signal dampened) and raw upside of 49% was cut by a 13% haircut. | ||
Customer concentration is high: aerospace and defense end markets account for 68.0% of the business. Bear case | Aerospace and defense demand stays firm and concentration does not rise above 70%. | →Stable |
| CounterA cyclical downturn in aircraft build rates or defense budgets would hit most of the revenue base at once. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.9, with price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 6.5% over 30 days and on-balance volume shows accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA pullback in an uptrend can evolve into a confirmed downtrend if the average flattens. | ||
ATI has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 11.6%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive at the 2027-02-02 report and beyond.
CounterBeats may reflect conservative estimates and the latest surprise of 6.8% is the smallest of the run, which could signal fading upside.
Growth is strong at 26% YoY, with earnings growth scoring 10 out of 10 and ROE of 29%.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 43% of net income, a flagged earnings-quality weakness that suggests growth is consuming cash.
Upside to the $215.08 analyst target is 29.9% from $165.59, with reward-to-risk of 2.3 versus 13% downside.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings growth continues.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light (9 analysts, signal dampened) and raw upside of 49% was cut by a 13% haircut.
Customer concentration is high: aerospace and defense end markets account for 68.0% of the business.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Aerospace and defense demand stays firm and concentration does not rise above 70%.
CounterA cyclical downturn in aircraft build rates or defense budgets would hit most of the revenue base at once.
Momentum is weak at 3.9, with price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 6.5% over 30 days and on-balance volume shows accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterA pullback in an uptrend can evolve into a confirmed downtrend if the average flattens.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.6 |
| ROA | 6.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 7.9 |
| Net margin | 5.5 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 3.5 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 29%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 43% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $21,460,635 (0.091% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Above max pain $100
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.3 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.30
Upside
+19.3%
Downside
14.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.6; weakest: Peer rank at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Sentiment at 7.5, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.2, Technical at 4.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 26%.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifUpside to analyst target falls below 10% from the current 29.9%.
- P4Aerospace Defense Concentration
Trip ifAerospace and defense share of business exceeds 75% from the current 68.0%.
- P5Pullback In Uptrend Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below the $154.00 stop level from the current $165.59.