Value
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.6 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 44.0x
ATEX · Why this verdict
Why Anterix (ATEX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 38% YoY, and the company shows a wide economic moat with 28% ROE and best-in-class margins versus peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY while ROE remains above 20%. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0, Rule of 40 is -974 (fail) and operating margin is -556.6%, so top-line growth is not yet translating into operating profit. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag: free cash flow is -109% of net income and value-trap signals include operating margin of -556.6%. Bear case | Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReported earnings include lumpy one-time items (EPS of 2.86 in one quarter), so FCF-to-income ratios are distorted. | ||
Upside to the $95.48 analyst target is only 5.3% from $90.67, against 15% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 0.35. Upside pct | The stock needs an upward target revision or a pullback to restore a favorable reward-to-risk ratio. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRaw analyst upside is 24% before a 15% haircut, and light coverage of 3 analysts means targets could move up on strong earnings. | ||
Insiders have sold $15,710,796 (0.884% of market cap) across 29 sells, an extreme level of insider selling. Insider breakdown | Insider selling slows below 0.3% of market cap over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSales may be pre-planned diversification at a high price, and institutions are accumulating shares. | ||
Momentum is strong at 8.2 out of 10 with a golden cross, price above the 200-day average and rising on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average through the next earnings report on 2026-11-10. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterThe earnings report is 9 days away and implied volatility of 94% means a miss could reverse the breakout quickly. | ||
Revenue is growing 38% YoY, and the company shows a wide economic moat with 28% ROE and best-in-class margins versus peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY while ROE remains above 20%.
CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0, Rule of 40 is -974 (fail) and operating margin is -556.6%, so top-line growth is not yet translating into operating profit.
Earnings quality is a red flag: free cash flow is -109% of net income and value-trap signals include operating margin of -556.6%.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income within 12 months.
CounterReported earnings include lumpy one-time items (EPS of 2.86 in one quarter), so FCF-to-income ratios are distorted.
Upside to the $95.48 analyst target is only 5.3% from $90.67, against 15% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 0.35.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- The stock needs an upward target revision or a pullback to restore a favorable reward-to-risk ratio.
CounterRaw analyst upside is 24% before a 15% haircut, and light coverage of 3 analysts means targets could move up on strong earnings.
Insiders have sold $15,710,796 (0.884% of market cap) across 29 sells, an extreme level of insider selling.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows below 0.3% of market cap over the next 12 months.
CounterSales may be pre-planned diversification at a high price, and institutions are accumulating shares.
Momentum is strong at 8.2 out of 10 with a golden cross, price above the 200-day average and rising on-balance volume.
Tripped↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average through the next earnings report on 2026-11-10.
CounterThe earnings report is 9 days away and implied volatility of 94% means a miss could reverse the breakout quickly.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.3 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -109% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $15,710,796 (0.884% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 4.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.1 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 94%
- ▸Above max pain $60
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:0.88%=EXTREME
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.08
Upside
+16.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Peer rank at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot, INSIDER:0.88%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.08 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Peer rank at 7.5, Sentiment at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 4.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8, and Growth at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 38%.
- P2Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifUpside to analyst target falls below 0% as price exceeds the $95.48 target.
- P3Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 1.5% of market cap from the current 0.884%.
- P4Negative Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below -100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Positive Momentum BreakoutTripped
Trip ifPrice drops below the $84.32 stop level from the current $90.67.