Value
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
ASIX · Why this verdict
Why AdvanSix (ASIX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AdvanSix trades at a cheap multiple with a strong balance-sheet score, but weak free-cash-flow conversion keeps quality below the engine's floor, and a yield-trap warning plus a failed asymmetry gate temper the near-term risk/reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AdvanSix's quality score of 2.1 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by a red-flagged FCF-to-net-income ratio of -216% despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9. Quality breakdown | The quality score improves toward the 4.0 floor as free cash flow conversion recovers from the current -216% of net income. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA strong 7-of-9 Piotroski F-Score suggests underlying balance-sheet and profitability trends are actually improving, which could pull the composite quality score up even if the FCF/NI ratio stays depressed. | ||
AdvanSix trades at a 6.9x forward P/E with a 0.01 PEG, which the value model flags as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The value score, currently 8.5, holds as the multiple stays cheap relative to peers. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe V8 layer already flags the analyst target as reached with -1.6% upside, meaning the cheap multiple may not translate into further price appreciation from current levels. | ||
The catalyst notes flag a yield-trap warning, indicating the dividend yield looks high but is considered unsafe given the underlying dividend-safety score of 4.2. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend-safety score improves above the current 4.2 level, or the payout is cut before it becomes a larger problem. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA dividend-safety score of 4.2 is a model estimate; the company could maintain the payout if chemical-cycle earnings recover faster than the model currently assumes. | ||
The V9 asymmetry gate failed at -0.18, and the V8 layer separately flags the analyst target as already reached with -1.6% implied upside. Warnings | The risk/reward profile turns positive as either the price pulls back to a better entry or the analyst target is revised higher. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA mixed earnings record of 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters means the next print could easily surprise to the upside and shift sentiment. | ||
Short interest sits at a high level with implied volatility at 72%, both flagged in the risk model as elevated for a chemicals name. Risk breakdown | Short interest and implied volatility decline as the range-bound setup resolves into a clearer trend. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh short interest combined with a range-bound setup can instead set up a short squeeze if the stock breaks out to the upside, which would work against the bearish risk read. | ||
AdvanSix's quality score of 2.1 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by a red-flagged FCF-to-net-income ratio of -216% despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score improves toward the 4.0 floor as free cash flow conversion recovers from the current -216% of net income.
CounterA strong 7-of-9 Piotroski F-Score suggests underlying balance-sheet and profitability trends are actually improving, which could pull the composite quality score up even if the FCF/NI ratio stays depressed.
AdvanSix trades at a 6.9x forward P/E with a 0.01 PEG, which the value model flags as attractively valued.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score, currently 8.5, holds as the multiple stays cheap relative to peers.
CounterThe V8 layer already flags the analyst target as reached with -1.6% upside, meaning the cheap multiple may not translate into further price appreciation from current levels.
The catalyst notes flag a yield-trap warning, indicating the dividend yield looks high but is considered unsafe given the underlying dividend-safety score of 4.2.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend-safety score improves above the current 4.2 level, or the payout is cut before it becomes a larger problem.
CounterA dividend-safety score of 4.2 is a model estimate; the company could maintain the payout if chemical-cycle earnings recover faster than the model currently assumes.
The V9 asymmetry gate failed at -0.18, and the V8 layer separately flags the analyst target as already reached with -1.6% implied upside.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The risk/reward profile turns positive as either the price pulls back to a better entry or the analyst target is revised higher.
CounterA mixed earnings record of 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters means the next print could easily surprise to the upside and shift sentiment.
Short interest sits at a high level with implied volatility at 72%, both flagged in the risk model as elevated for a chemicals name.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest and implied volatility decline as the range-bound setup resolves into a clearer trend.
CounterHigh short interest combined with a range-bound setup can instead set up a short squeeze if the stock breaks out to the upside, which would work against the bearish risk read.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 5.8 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 2.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.4 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.15
Upside
+15.7%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.4<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.2 and asymmetric R:R of 1.15.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Insider at 7.3, and Technical at 6.3; the weakest are Quality at 1.8, Momentum at 2.4, and Growth at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Engine Floor
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio stays below -100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractively Valued Cheap Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 6.9x.
- P3Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifDividend-safety score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.2, or the dividend is cut.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below -1.0, down from the current -0.18.
- P5Elevated Short Interest And Volatility
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 40% from the current 72%, or short interest falls below 5%.