Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.38
- ▸Attractively valued
ASIC · Why this verdict
Why Ategrity Specialty Insurance (ASIC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ategrity Specialty Insurance is growing quickly (quarterly revenue up about 46% YoY) at a cheap 9.6x forward P/E, but the October 2026 earnings miss, heavy casualty and parent-counterparty concentration, and only 3.7% upside to the analyst target limit the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue reached about $148.5M in the June 2026 quarter versus $101.8M a year earlier, roughly 46% YoY growth. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should keep growing and stay above $150M within the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth confidence is 0.67 and the next-quarter revenue estimate is reported as 0.0, so forward growth visibility is poor and the pace may slow. | ||
Ategrity beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 13.0%, but the October 2026 quarter missed by 41.9% (0.29 vs 0.50). Earnings | EPS should return to meeting or beating estimates at the next report on 2027-02-18. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe latest miss was large and underwriting results for a young specialty insurer are volatile, so the earlier beat streak may not predict future results. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.6x with a PEG of 0.38, an attractively valued profile with a value score of 8.2/10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 12x as earnings grow over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurers often trade at low multiples, and the recent EPS miss suggests forward estimates may be cut, which would raise the true forward multiple. | ||
The business is concentrated, with casualty making up 67.2% of the product mix and Ategrity Limited accounting for 80.0% of the counterparty exposure. Bear case | Casualty share should not rise above 67.2% and the counterparty reliance on Ategrity Limited should not exceed 80%. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy casualty exposure can bring reserve deficiencies and adverse development, and dependence on a single counterparty means a disruption there would hit results directly. | ||
Price is only 3.7% below the $24.71 analyst target while downside to the stop is 9.6%, a reward-to-risk of 0.39, and momentum is weak at 3.1/10. Estimated upside | Reward-to-risk should improve toward 1.5 on a pullback or a higher analyst target before an entry is attractive. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI of 38 marks an uptrend pullback above the 200-day average and the first insider buy has appeared, so the weakness may be a buying opportunity. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached about $148.5M in the June 2026 quarter versus $101.8M a year earlier, roughly 46% YoY growth.
Tripped↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should keep growing and stay above $150M within the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is 0.67 and the next-quarter revenue estimate is reported as 0.0, so forward growth visibility is poor and the pace may slow.
Ategrity beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 13.0%, but the October 2026 quarter missed by 41.9% (0.29 vs 0.50).
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should return to meeting or beating estimates at the next report on 2027-02-18.
CounterThe latest miss was large and underwriting results for a young specialty insurer are volatile, so the earlier beat streak may not predict future results.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.6x with a PEG of 0.38, an attractively valued profile with a value score of 8.2/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 12x as earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterInsurers often trade at low multiples, and the recent EPS miss suggests forward estimates may be cut, which would raise the true forward multiple.
The business is concentrated, with casualty making up 67.2% of the product mix and Ategrity Limited accounting for 80.0% of the counterparty exposure.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Casualty share should not rise above 67.2% and the counterparty reliance on Ategrity Limited should not exceed 80%.
CounterHeavy casualty exposure can bring reserve deficiencies and adverse development, and dependence on a single counterparty means a disruption there would hit results directly.
Price is only 3.7% below the $24.71 analyst target while downside to the stop is 9.6%, a reward-to-risk of 0.39, and momentum is weak at 3.1/10.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Reward-to-risk should improve toward 1.5 on a pullback or a higher analyst target before an entry is attractive.
CounterRSI of 38 marks an uptrend pullback above the 200-day average and the first insider buy has appeared, so the weakness may be a buying opportunity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 9.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 7.0 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $24,290 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 7.5 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 0.7 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:108d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.18
Upside
+1.7%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Momentum at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Technical at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 4.2, Quality at 5.3, and Insider at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Fast Premium Revenue GrowthTripped
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 20% YoY from current roughly 46%.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Broken
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from current 9.6x.
- P4Casualty And Parent Concentration
Trip ifAtegrity Limited counterparty share exceeds 90% from current 80%.
- P5Thin Upside Negative Momentum
Trip ifReward-to-risk exceeds 1.5 from current 0.39.