Value
7.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 6.3 |
- ▸PEG: 1.17
- ▸Attractively valued
ASA · Why this verdict
Why ASA Gold and Precious Metals L (ASA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ASA Gold and Precious Metals has top-tier quality (72% return on equity, wide moat) and ranks best in class versus peers, but it is in a confirmed downtrend, growth is weak and the options market is heavily skewed to puts.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The fund shows excellent returns, with a 72% return on equity, a wide economic moat (score 8.0) and a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | Return on equity should stay above 40% and the quality score should hold above 6/10 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.1 and operating margin 3.5, so the headline 72% return on equity may be inflated by leverage or by gold-price-driven marks rather than durable earnings. | ||
ASA ranks best in class against peers, with value, quality and growth peer ranks all near 9.8-10 out of 10 and an attractive P/E versus peers. Peer-rank breakdown | The peer rank score should stay above 7/10 as the fund keeps outperforming asset-management peers. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer ranks reflect a small asset-management group and the fund's results depend heavily on precious-metals prices, so relative standing can flip when the gold cycle turns. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, below its 200-day moving average with a 1.1% 30-day slope decline, falling on-balance volume and momentum at just 2.9/10. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should recover above 4.5/10 before the downtrend can be considered over. | →Stable |
| CounterBollinger and support/resistance scores are strong (8.4 and 9.0), suggesting the price is near support, so the weakness may already be largely priced in. | ||
Growth is weak, with the earnings growth component at just 2.2/10 and an overall growth score of 2.2. Bear case | Earnings growth should improve above 5/10 for the attractive valuation to translate into returns. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, so the low reading rests on thin data and may understate underlying earnings power. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 7.25, signaling heavy bearish positioning or hedging in the options market. Key risks | The put/call ratio should fall below 2 as sentiment stabilizes over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOpen interest totals are reported at 0, so the ratio may come from very thin options volume and may exaggerate real bearish sentiment. | ||
The fund shows excellent returns, with a 72% return on equity, a wide economic moat (score 8.0) and a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity should stay above 40% and the quality score should hold above 6/10 over the next 12 months.
CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.1 and operating margin 3.5, so the headline 72% return on equity may be inflated by leverage or by gold-price-driven marks rather than durable earnings.
ASA ranks best in class against peers, with value, quality and growth peer ranks all near 9.8-10 out of 10 and an attractive P/E versus peers.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The peer rank score should stay above 7/10 as the fund keeps outperforming asset-management peers.
CounterPeer ranks reflect a small asset-management group and the fund's results depend heavily on precious-metals prices, so relative standing can flip when the gold cycle turns.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, below its 200-day moving average with a 1.1% 30-day slope decline, falling on-balance volume and momentum at just 2.9/10.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5/10 before the downtrend can be considered over.
CounterBollinger and support/resistance scores are strong (8.4 and 9.0), suggesting the price is near support, so the weakness may already be largely priced in.
Growth is weak, with the earnings growth component at just 2.2/10 and an overall growth score of 2.2.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should improve above 5/10 for the attractive valuation to translate into returns.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, so the low reading rests on thin data and may understate underlying earnings power.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 7.25, signaling heavy bearish positioning or hedging in the options market.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should fall below 2 as sentiment stabilizes over the next 12 months.
CounterOpen interest totals are reported at 0, so the ratio may come from very thin options volume and may exaggerate real bearish sentiment.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| Moat | 8.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 72%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 2.2 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
8.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 10.0 |
| quality rank | 9.9 |
| growth rank | 9.8 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 8.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 7.25
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
9.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+16.2%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Catalyst at 9.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 9.0, Peer rank at 8.7, and Value at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Growth at 2.2, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Returns Wide Moat
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 30% from current 72%.
- P2Best In Class Peer Standing
Trip ifPeer rank score falls below 5/10 from current 8.7.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5/10 from current 2.9.
- P4Weak Earnings Growth
Trip ifEarnings growth component score rises above 5/10 from current 2.2.
- P5Extreme Put Call Skew
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2 from current 7.25.