Value
4.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 2.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 37.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
ARXS · Why this verdict
Why Arxis (ARXS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Arxis is a high-quality aerospace and defense business growing 36% YoY with two straight earnings beats, but a 37.4x forward P/E and only 12.0% upside versus 13.6% downside leave a thin entry margin.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing strongly at 36% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising to about $564M in the September 2026 quarter from $415M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should keep rising toward the $546M-plus run rate and growth should stay above 20% YoY. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and the data has a flagged revenue divergence between XBRL and yfinance for the December 2025 quarter, so the growth rate may be less reliable than it looks. | ||
The business is high quality with a quality score of 7.9/10, a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score and a moat score of 7.2. Quality breakdown | Quality score should stay above 7.0/10 as margins hold while revenue scales. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGross margin scores only 6.5 and net margin 5.8, and in the current risk-off tape a mid-cap needs quality of at least 8.5 to justify a buy. | ||
Arxis beat EPS estimates in both reported quarters, by 48.9% in July 2026 (0.28 vs 0.19) and 29.1% in October 2026 (0.37 vs 0.29). Earnings | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the next report on 2027-01-27. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly two quarters of history are available, which is too short to establish a durable beat pattern, and expectations will rise after two beats. | ||
Valuation is demanding at a forward P/E of 37.4x, and the value score is only 4.3/10 even though the PEG of 0.06 looks low. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should compress the forward P/E below 30x over the next 12 months through earnings growth rather than price decline. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA PEG of 0.06 implies growth far outpaces the multiple, so a 37.4x forward P/E may be justified if growth stays near 36%. | ||
Price is 12.0% below the $56.90 analyst target while downside to the stop is 13.6%, giving reward-to-risk of just 0.88. Estimated upside | Reward-to-risk should improve toward 1.5 on a pullback toward the $48.28 entry level or a higher analyst target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and a cluster of 3 analyst upgrades recently, so target raises could quickly widen the upside beyond 12%. | ||
Revenue is growing strongly at 36% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising to about $564M in the September 2026 quarter from $415M a year earlier.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should keep rising toward the $546M-plus run rate and growth should stay above 20% YoY.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and the data has a flagged revenue divergence between XBRL and yfinance for the December 2025 quarter, so the growth rate may be less reliable than it looks.
The business is high quality with a quality score of 7.9/10, a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score and a moat score of 7.2.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should stay above 7.0/10 as margins hold while revenue scales.
CounterGross margin scores only 6.5 and net margin 5.8, and in the current risk-off tape a mid-cap needs quality of at least 8.5 to justify a buy.
Arxis beat EPS estimates in both reported quarters, by 48.9% in July 2026 (0.28 vs 0.19) and 29.1% in October 2026 (0.37 vs 0.29).
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the next report on 2027-01-27.
CounterOnly two quarters of history are available, which is too short to establish a durable beat pattern, and expectations will rise after two beats.
Valuation is demanding at a forward P/E of 37.4x, and the value score is only 4.3/10 even though the PEG of 0.06 looks low.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should compress the forward P/E below 30x over the next 12 months through earnings growth rather than price decline.
CounterA PEG of 0.06 implies growth far outpaces the multiple, so a 37.4x forward P/E may be justified if growth stays near 36%.
Price is 12.0% below the $56.90 analyst target while downside to the stop is 13.6%, giving reward-to-risk of just 0.88.
↑ImprovingEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Reward-to-risk should improve toward 1.5 on a pullback toward the $48.28 entry level or a higher analyst target.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and a cluster of 3 analyst upgrades recently, so target raises could quickly widen the upside beyond 12%.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.9/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 9.5 |
| Net margin | 5.8 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 36% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.4 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.06, quality 7.9/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.95
Upside
+12.2%
Downside
12.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.9 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.95 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Value at 4.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0, and Momentum at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.95 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from current 36%.
- P2High Quality Business
Trip ifQuality score falls below 6.5/10 from current 7.9.
- P3Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Rich Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 45x from current 37.4x.
- P5Thin Upside Balanced Risk
Trip ifReward-to-risk exceeds 1.5 from current 0.88.