Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- -$2.62
- Estimate
- -$0.58
- Surprise
- -353.4%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.6 → 5.4/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) reported a wider loss than forecast — adjusted EPS of -$2.62 against the -$0.58 estimate (a 353.4% shortfall). TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.6/10) to Sell at 5.4/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates ARI Hold at 6.1/10.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -353.4% surprise compares with a -115.0% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-03.
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo)
- DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $8.00 vs price $2.51 — ratio 3.2×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.
- Market cap $309M below $400M minimum
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $2.51
- Price target
- $2.89
- Stop
- $2.37
- Upside to target
- +15.1%
Forward estimates sit below the trailing run-rate (10.6× forward vs 3.0× trailing) — consensus expects earnings to decline from here.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-04 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
ARI at TrendMatrix's latest read
REIT quarters hinge on occupancy, rate exposure, and FFO rather than headline EPS, which mechanically distorts under depreciation.
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $309.0M
- P/E (fwd)
- 10.6
- P/E (ttm)
- 3.0
- 52-week range
- $2.28–$11.24
- Off 52-week high
- 77.7%
- RSI (14)
- 68
- Volume vs avg
- 1.22×
- Score today
- 6.1/10