Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
APG · Why this verdict
Why APi Group (APG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
APi Group has 22% revenue growth, 168% cash conversion, a perfect four-quarter beat streak and strong momentum, but business quality is below average and the price of $44.34 leaves only 7.9% upside to the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 22% YoY, supporting a growth score of 6.9/10 and a PEG of 0.29. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPart of the growth may come from acquisitions, and the forward P/E of 21.7x leaves little room if growth slows. | ||
APG beat EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, including $0.50 versus $0.47 on 2026-10-29, with an average surprise of 4.8%. Earnings | EPS beats continue at the next report on 2027-02-25. | →Stable |
| CounterSurprises are small (1.3% to 6.4%), so a modest miss could break the streak and a premium multiple. | ||
The business converts 168% of net income to free cash flow and has a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, though it has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income stays above 100% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLow margins and a quality score of 4.7 mean the cash conversion may reflect timing rather than a durable advantage. | ||
The analyst target of $47.85 is only 7.9% above the $44.34 price against 14% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 0.56. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $50 or the price holds above the $41.84 stop. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPositive news and analyst clusters could lift targets, but at present the upside margin is thin. | ||
Momentum scores 7.9 with rising volume and the price above its 200-day average, though insiders sold $26.4M (0.140% of market cap). Momentum breakdown | The price holds above the 200-day average and insider selling stays below 0.2% of market cap. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 420 and insider sales suggest hedging or caution against a stretched rally. | ||
Revenue is growing 22% YoY, supporting a growth score of 6.9/10 and a PEG of 0.29.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 4 quarters.
CounterPart of the growth may come from acquisitions, and the forward P/E of 21.7x leaves little room if growth slows.
APG beat EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, including $0.50 versus $0.47 on 2026-10-29, with an average surprise of 4.8%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue at the next report on 2027-02-25.
CounterSurprises are small (1.3% to 6.4%), so a modest miss could break the streak and a premium multiple.
The business converts 168% of net income to free cash flow and has a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, though it has no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income stays above 100% over the next 12 months.
CounterLow margins and a quality score of 4.7 mean the cash conversion may reflect timing rather than a durable advantage.
The analyst target of $47.85 is only 7.9% above the $44.34 price against 14% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 0.56.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $50 or the price holds above the $41.84 stop.
CounterPositive news and analyst clusters could lift targets, but at present the upside margin is thin.
Momentum scores 7.9 with rising volume and the price above its 200-day average, though insiders sold $26.4M (0.140% of market cap).
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price holds above the 200-day average and insider selling stays below 0.2% of market cap.
CounterA put/call ratio of 420 and insider sales suggest hedging or caution against a stretched rally.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 2.2 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 168% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.1 |
| EPS growth | 5.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 88.46
- ▸Above max pain $33
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:113d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.24
Upside
+3.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.58>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.24 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.7, Sentiment at 7.3, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Peer rank at 3.6, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 80%.
- P4Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $41.84 stop level.
- P5Positive Momentum With Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.3% of market cap over a 90-day period.