Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
ANIP · Why this verdict
Why ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ANI Pharmaceuticals is a cheaply valued specialty generics business (forward P/E 7.1x) with 26% growth, strong cash conversion and a perfect four-quarter beat streak, but supplier concentration and a confirmed downtrend limit near-term conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 26% YoY while the stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.1x and a PEG of 0.04, marking growth that is cheaply priced. Valuation breakdown | Growth stays above 15% YoY while forward P/E remains below 12x. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG may reflect doubt that earnings growth is sustainable, particularly if recent gains came from one-off product launches. | ||
ANI beat EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 24.8%, with the next report due 2026-11-05. Earnings | Another EPS beat in the November report and continued positive surprises. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe latest beat narrowed to 8.2%, suggesting the upside surprise is fading as estimates catch up. | ||
The company converts 122% of net income to free cash flow, has a wide economic moat and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income stays above 100% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion can be inflated by working-capital timing, and the moat depends on a few specialty products. | ||
Two high-severity supplier concentrations exist: single-source API per product, and contract manufacturers for Cortrophin Gel and ILUVIEN. Bear case | No supply interruption on key products over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single supplier outage or manufacturing quality issue could halt sales of a lead product with no short-term substitute. | ||
The price is below its falling 200-day average (slope -1.6% per 30 days) with 18% short interest and a put/call ratio of 1.86, even as the analyst target sits 27.8% above the $72.00 price. Momentum breakdown | The price reclaims the 200-day average and short interest falls below 15%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA confirmed downtrend with heavy put buying shows the market doubts the analyst targets, and the stock can keep falling toward the $67.98 stop. | ||
Revenue is growing 26% YoY while the stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.1x and a PEG of 0.04, marking growth that is cheaply priced.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth stays above 15% YoY while forward P/E remains below 12x.
CounterA very low PEG may reflect doubt that earnings growth is sustainable, particularly if recent gains came from one-off product launches.
ANI beat EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 24.8%, with the next report due 2026-11-05.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Another EPS beat in the November report and continued positive surprises.
CounterThe latest beat narrowed to 8.2%, suggesting the upside surprise is fading as estimates catch up.
The company converts 122% of net income to free cash flow, has a wide economic moat and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income stays above 100% over the next 12 months.
CounterCash conversion can be inflated by working-capital timing, and the moat depends on a few specialty products.
Two high-severity supplier concentrations exist: single-source API per product, and contract manufacturers for Cortrophin Gel and ILUVIEN.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- No supply interruption on key products over the next 12 months.
CounterA single supplier outage or manufacturing quality issue could halt sales of a lead product with no short-term substitute.
The price is below its falling 200-day average (slope -1.6% per 30 days) with 18% short interest and a put/call ratio of 1.86, even as the analyst target sits 27.8% above the $72.00 price.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price reclaims the 200-day average and short interest falls below 15%.
CounterA confirmed downtrend with heavy put buying shows the market doubts the analyst targets, and the stock can keep falling toward the $67.98 stop.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.8 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 8.1 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 5.5 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 122% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.4 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,012,920 (0.124% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 2.0 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 1.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 18% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.86
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.21
Upside
+27.3%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.5; weakest: Insider at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.5, Value at 8.9, and Quality at 7.2; the weakest are Insider at 3.8, Momentum at 3.9, and Technical at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Low Valuation
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3High Cash Conversion Wide Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 70%.
- P4Single Source Supplier Concentration
Trip ifAny single-source supplier outage lasting more than 1 quarter reduces product revenue by more than 10%.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Short Interest
Trip ifPrice falls below the $67.98 stop level.