Value
4.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.8x
ANDG · Why this verdict
Why Andersen Group (ANDG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Andersen Group has strong growth, rising volume and a three-quarter earnings beat streak, but the price of $65.55 is already above the $52.95 analyst target, leaving negative upside of -19.2% and elevated risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 24% YoY and the company is flagged as an industry growth leader, with quarterly revenue of $217.7M to $240.7M in recent periods. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY and approaches the $333.6M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue is volatile (from $170M to $284M) and part of the history is provisional data, so the growth rate may not be durable. | ||
The company beat EPS estimates in all 3 recent quarters with an average surprise of 78.6%, with the next report due 2026-11-12. Earnings | Another EPS beat at the November report and positive EPS in following quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOnly 3 quarters of history and one was a loss of -$0.08, so the beat streak is a short and thin sample against low estimates. | ||
Risk score is 2.5, below the 3.0 floor, with 25% short interest, no competitive moat and a forward P/E of 28.7x. Bear case | Risk score improves above 3.0 and short interest falls below 20% over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA high forward P/E and no moat leave the stock exposed to a de-rating if growth slows. | ||
The price of $65.55 sits 19.2% above the $52.95 analyst target, so negative upside leaves no reward-to-risk cushion at current levels. Targets | Either analyst targets are raised above $65 or the price pulls back toward the target. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and targets lag fast-moving stocks, so the stock can keep trading above the target while momentum persists. | ||
Momentum score is 7.8 with rising volume and the price above the 200-day average, but RSI of 79 shows an overbought condition. Momentum breakdown | The price holds above the 200-day average through a consolidation of the overbought reading. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI near 79 and a 25% short interest suggest a sharp pullback or squeeze reversal is likely. | ||
Revenue is growing 24% YoY and the company is flagged as an industry growth leader, with quarterly revenue of $217.7M to $240.7M in recent periods.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY and approaches the $333.6M next-quarter estimate.
CounterQuarterly revenue is volatile (from $170M to $284M) and part of the history is provisional data, so the growth rate may not be durable.
The company beat EPS estimates in all 3 recent quarters with an average surprise of 78.6%, with the next report due 2026-11-12.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Another EPS beat at the November report and positive EPS in following quarters.
CounterOnly 3 quarters of history and one was a loss of -$0.08, so the beat streak is a short and thin sample against low estimates.
Risk score is 2.5, below the 3.0 floor, with 25% short interest, no competitive moat and a forward P/E of 28.7x.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Risk score improves above 3.0 and short interest falls below 20% over 12 months.
CounterA high forward P/E and no moat leave the stock exposed to a de-rating if growth slows.
The price of $65.55 sits 19.2% above the $52.95 analyst target, so negative upside leaves no reward-to-risk cushion at current levels.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Either analyst targets are raised above $65 or the price pulls back toward the target.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and targets lag fast-moving stocks, so the stock can keep trading above the target while momentum persists.
Momentum score is 7.8 with rising volume and the price above the 200-day average, but RSI of 79 shows an overbought condition.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price holds above the 200-day average through a consolidation of the overbought reading.
CounterRSI near 79 and a 25% short interest suggest a sharp pullback or squeeze reversal is likely.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 321% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.0x avg) on up move
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
2.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 0.3 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.8 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.0 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 25%
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.43
Upside
-21.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.4=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 8.5 and asymmetric R:R of -1.43.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.5, Growth at 8.4, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.3, Insider at 2.8, and Peer rank at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice stays more than 20% above the analyst target for 2 more quarters without a target increase.
- P4Overbought Momentum With Accumulation
Trip ifPrice falls below the $60.97 stop level and the 200-day average.
- P5Weak Risk Profile No Moat
Trip ifShort interest rises above 35% of float.