Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.6 |
| P/S | 5.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.74
AME · Why this verdict
Why AMETEK (AME) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AMETEK is a wide-moat, high-margin industrial with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and double-digit revenue growth, but a 25.3x forward P/E and only 5.3% upside to the analyst target leave little margin of safety ahead of earnings in 2 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AMETEK has a wide economic moat with 20% margins and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a high-quality franchise. Quality breakdown | Margins should hold near 20% and the quality score should stay near 6.8/10 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity and gross margin components are middling (4.9 and 3.4 out of 10), so the moat may not translate into superior capital returns. | ||
AMETEK has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters by an average of 4.84%, most recently $2.09 versus $1.99 expected. Earnings track record | The beat pattern should continue, including at the upcoming November 3 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats of 3-5% are modest and likely reflect conservative estimates, so a single miss could trigger a sharp reaction given the thin upside. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached $2.044 billion in the June 2026 quarter versus $1.778 billion a year earlier, about 15% YoY growth. Revenue quarters | Revenue should keep growing at a high-single to double-digit rate toward the $2.127 billion next-quarter estimate. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSequential growth was uneven, and a portion of the increase may come from acquisitions rather than organic demand. | ||
Upside to the $253.85 analyst target is only 5.3%, equal to the 5.3% downside, leaving a reward-to-risk of 0.99 at $241.12. Upside pct | A pullback toward the $237.64 entry area or a higher analyst target should improve the reward-to-risk. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag a strong earnings cycle and a fourth consecutive beat could lift both the target and price. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 25.3x with a PEG of 2.74, a premium valuation that requires continued earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should catch up so the PEG moves toward 2.0 without multiple compression. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 2.74 with value rank near the bottom of peers (1.9/10) means any growth disappointment can compress the multiple. | ||
AMETEK has a wide economic moat with 20% margins and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a high-quality franchise.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should hold near 20% and the quality score should stay near 6.8/10 over the next 12 months.
CounterReturn on equity and gross margin components are middling (4.9 and 3.4 out of 10), so the moat may not translate into superior capital returns.
AMETEK has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters by an average of 4.84%, most recently $2.09 versus $1.99 expected.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- The beat pattern should continue, including at the upcoming November 3 report.
CounterBeats of 3-5% are modest and likely reflect conservative estimates, so a single miss could trigger a sharp reaction given the thin upside.
Quarterly revenue reached $2.044 billion in the June 2026 quarter versus $1.778 billion a year earlier, about 15% YoY growth.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep growing at a high-single to double-digit rate toward the $2.127 billion next-quarter estimate.
CounterSequential growth was uneven, and a portion of the increase may come from acquisitions rather than organic demand.
Upside to the $253.85 analyst target is only 5.3%, equal to the 5.3% downside, leaving a reward-to-risk of 0.99 at $241.12.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- A pullback toward the $237.64 entry area or a higher analyst target should improve the reward-to-risk.
CounterAnalyst targets lag a strong earnings cycle and a fourth consecutive beat could lift both the target and price.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 25.3x with a PEG of 2.74, a premium valuation that requires continued earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should catch up so the PEG moves toward 2.0 without multiple compression.
CounterA PEG of 2.74 with value rank near the bottom of peers (1.9/10) means any growth disappointment can compress the multiple.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 5.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.36 (n=5)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $655,032 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸Above max pain $100
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.90
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.37
Upside
+2.1%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.37 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.1, Quality at 6.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Value at 4.0, Insider at 5.0, and Technical at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Margins
Trip ifMargins fall below 17% from the current 20%.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% on the November 3 report or the next quarter.
- P3Double Digit Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 6% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $227, which would lift upside to the $253.85 target above 12%.
- P5Premium Valuation Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 30x without a matching rise in earnings estimates.