Value
6.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
AMC · Why this verdict
Why AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AMC's revenue growth and rising forward estimates point to some operating traction, but weak profitability, fading price momentum, and a thin insider-buying signal keep the setup speculative rather than compelling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality screens well below the minimum bar needed to support a position, reflecting depressed margins and returns. Bear case | The quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months as margins and returns normalize. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDepressed margins can persist indefinitely if demand recovery stalls, keeping quality impaired rather than merely cyclically low. | ||
Revenue growth remains a bright spot, with sales up 21% year-over-year even as other fundamentals lag. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should hold near or above the current 21% year-over-year pace over the next 12 months for the growth story to remain credible. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single quarter of 21% growth off a depressed base can decelerate sharply once comparisons normalize, and this dimension's confidence is rated low. | ||
Price momentum has weakened, with on-balance volume falling and the moving-average slope gone flat even though shares still sit above the 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should reaccelerate, with volume flows turning back to accumulation and the moving-average slope turning positive, over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA stock already showing distribution-pattern volume can break below its long-term average entirely rather than reaccelerate. | ||
Recent insider trading points bullish, with insiders net buyers over the past 90 days rather than sellers. Insider transaction read | The insider signal should remain net bullish, with subsequent filings continuing to show buying rather than selling activity. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe insider purchase flagged here is modest, just over $344,000 or 0.02% of market capitalization, too small to reliably signal high management conviction in a turnaround. | ||
Analyst estimates have been revised sharply higher over the past month, up over 31%, signaling improving forward expectations even as trailing results have been mixed. Catalyst breakdown | Estimate revisions should remain net positive over the next 12 months, extending the recent 30-day upward trend rather than reversing. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA large estimate increase off a small loss-making base can reflect a reset bar rather than genuine business improvement. | ||
Business quality screens well below the minimum bar needed to support a position, reflecting depressed margins and returns.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months as margins and returns normalize.
CounterDepressed margins can persist indefinitely if demand recovery stalls, keeping quality impaired rather than merely cyclically low.
Revenue growth remains a bright spot, with sales up 21% year-over-year even as other fundamentals lag.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should hold near or above the current 21% year-over-year pace over the next 12 months for the growth story to remain credible.
CounterA single quarter of 21% growth off a depressed base can decelerate sharply once comparisons normalize, and this dimension's confidence is rated low.
Price momentum has weakened, with on-balance volume falling and the moving-average slope gone flat even though shares still sit above the 200-day average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should reaccelerate, with volume flows turning back to accumulation and the moving-average slope turning positive, over the next 12 months.
CounterA stock already showing distribution-pattern volume can break below its long-term average entirely rather than reaccelerate.
Recent insider trading points bullish, with insiders net buyers over the past 90 days rather than sellers.
↓DeterioratingInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- The insider signal should remain net bullish, with subsequent filings continuing to show buying rather than selling activity.
CounterThe insider purchase flagged here is modest, just over $344,000 or 0.02% of market capitalization, too small to reliably signal high management conviction in a turnaround.
Analyst estimates have been revised sharply higher over the past month, up over 31%, signaling improving forward expectations even as trailing results have been mixed.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Estimate revisions should remain net positive over the next 12 months, extending the recent 30-day upward trend rather than reversing.
CounterA large estimate increase off a small loss-making base can reflect a reset bar rather than genuine business improvement.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $344,350 (0.017% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 5.1 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.4 |
| news risk | 4.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 107%
- ▸Above max pain $0
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:2.04
Reward-to-Risk
0.59
Upside
+8.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.28>1.3, MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.6<1.5@spot outcome against Insider at 7.5 and asymmetric R:R of 0.59.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Catalyst at 7.0, and Value at 6.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.0, Quality at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 1.9.
- P2Revenue Growth Bright Spot
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 10% YoY.
- P3Fading Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 6.0 from the current 3.5.
- P4Modest Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to bearish with net insider selling exceeding $500,000 in a rolling 90-day period.
- P5Rising Forward Estimates
Trip ifForward earnings estimates are revised down by more than 15% over a 30-day period.