Value
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 2.86
- ▸Attractively valued
AMAL · Why this verdict
Why Amalgamated Financial (AMAL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amalgamated Financial trades at a forward multiple of about 9.7 times earnings — attractive for a bank with solid fundamentals and three beats over the four most recently reported quarters — but the stock has reached its near-term resistance target with minimal remaining upside, and declining revenue reduces the likelihood of a meaningful valuation re-rating at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue declined approximately 3% year-over-year and screens near the bottom relative to regional bank peers on growth — a headwind that limits valuation multiple expansion even at an attractively priced earnings base. Bear case | Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the top-line decline has reversed. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional bank revenue is highly sensitive to the interest rate environment; loan repricing or deposit cost normalization could reverse the decline quickly without requiring structural management action. | ||
Three of the four most recently reported quarters beat analyst estimates — with positive surprises of 1.2%, 4.0%, and 9.4% in the July through January period — reflecting a mostly consistent pattern of conservative guidance and solid delivery, though the most recent quarter in April 2026 broke the streak with a 15.8% miss. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, re-establishing the beat pattern. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent quarter broke the streak with a 15.8% miss at the same time the stock trades at its highest levels in 52 weeks; execution risk increases when expectations have risen in response to prior beats. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 9.7 times, the stock trades at a discount to typical sector multiples for a regional bank carrying a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and 33% net margins. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 12 times as earnings growth closes the valuation discount. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterRevenue declined roughly 3% last year, and a multiple cannot sustainably expand without earnings growth to support it; an attractive multiple can persist without a catalyst to unlock the discount. | ||
The stock price has reached the near-term resistance target with only about 1.5% of upside remaining to the next level, while downside risk is multiples larger — a setup that does not offer a compelling reward relative to the risk at current entry prices. Warnings | Price retreats more than 8% from $43.68, creating at least 10% upside to the $44.33 resistance target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA golden cross, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume point to sustained buying interest; in trending markets with positive institutional accumulation, resistance targets can be extended meaningfully beyond initial levels. | ||
Revenue declined approximately 3% year-over-year and screens near the bottom relative to regional bank peers on growth — a headwind that limits valuation multiple expansion even at an attractively priced earnings base.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the top-line decline has reversed.
CounterRegional bank revenue is highly sensitive to the interest rate environment; loan repricing or deposit cost normalization could reverse the decline quickly without requiring structural management action.
Three of the four most recently reported quarters beat analyst estimates — with positive surprises of 1.2%, 4.0%, and 9.4% in the July through January period — reflecting a mostly consistent pattern of conservative guidance and solid delivery, though the most recent quarter in April 2026 broke the streak with a 15.8% miss.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, re-establishing the beat pattern.
CounterThe most recent quarter broke the streak with a 15.8% miss at the same time the stock trades at its highest levels in 52 weeks; execution risk increases when expectations have risen in response to prior beats.
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 9.7 times, the stock trades at a discount to typical sector multiples for a regional bank carrying a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and 33% net margins.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 12 times as earnings growth closes the valuation discount.
CounterRevenue declined roughly 3% last year, and a multiple cannot sustainably expand without earnings growth to support it; an attractive multiple can persist without a catalyst to unlock the discount.
The stock price has reached the near-term resistance target with only about 1.5% of upside remaining to the next level, while downside risk is multiples larger — a setup that does not offer a compelling reward relative to the risk at current entry prices.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Price retreats more than 8% from $43.68, creating at least 10% upside to the $44.33 resistance target.
CounterA golden cross, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume point to sustained buying interest; in trending markets with positive institutional accumulation, resistance targets can be extended meaningfully beyond initial levels.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $416,473 (0.029% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 8.6 |
| implied vol | 7.3 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.38
Upside
-11.4%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE, FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.38 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9, and Momentum at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 3.2, Technical at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Forward ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 14 times from the current approximately 9.7 times without a commensurate increase in earnings estimates.
- P3Upside Exhausted At Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 8% from $43.68, creating more than 10% upside to the $44.33 resistance target.
- P4Weak Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.