Value
6.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.87
AMAL · Why this verdict
Why Amalgamated Financial (AMAL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amalgamated Financial grows 22% YoY at 10.7x forward earnings, but 81% of loans are NYC rent-stabilized multifamily, 82% of exposure is in three regions, insiders sold $83M, and the price is above the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Rent stabilized or controlled NYC multifamily loans are 81% of the loan portfolio, and 82% of exposure is in New York, California and Washington D.C. Bear case | Loan book diversifies so the multifamily share falls below 75%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA New York rent regulation change or regional shock would hit nearly all assets at once. | ||
Revenue is growing about 22% YoY with margins near 35% and quarterly revenue rising from $104M to $117M. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue exceeds $125M within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth in a bank depends on loan quality in a concentrated book. | ||
EPS beat in three of the last four quarters, with a 5.2% surprise in October 2026. Earnings | EPS beats at the January 2027 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe April 2026 miss of 15.8% shows credit costs can surprise. | ||
Insiders sold about $83.1M, or 5.55% of market cap, across 39 sell transactions with no buys. Insider | Insider selling fades below 1% of market cap. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling by large holders may reflect planned diversification rather than a negative view. | ||
The $50.07 price is above the $47.60 analyst target by about 4.9%, with only 3 analysts covering. Targets | Targets rise or price pulls back. | →Stable |
| CounterLight coverage dampens the signal and momentum remains strong with an RSI of 70. | ||
Rent stabilized or controlled NYC multifamily loans are 81% of the loan portfolio, and 82% of exposure is in New York, California and Washington D.C.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Loan book diversifies so the multifamily share falls below 75%.
CounterA New York rent regulation change or regional shock would hit nearly all assets at once.
Revenue is growing about 22% YoY with margins near 35% and quarterly revenue rising from $104M to $117M.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue exceeds $125M within 12 months.
CounterGrowth in a bank depends on loan quality in a concentrated book.
EPS beat in three of the last four quarters, with a 5.2% surprise in October 2026.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats at the January 2027 report.
CounterThe April 2026 miss of 15.8% shows credit costs can surprise.
Insiders sold about $83.1M, or 5.55% of market cap, across 39 sell transactions with no buys.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling fades below 1% of market cap.
CounterSelling by large holders may reflect planned diversification rather than a negative view.
The $50.07 price is above the $47.60 analyst target by about 4.9%, with only 3 analysts covering.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Targets rise or price pulls back.
CounterLight coverage dampens the signal and momentum remains strong with an RSI of 70.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $83,085,305 (5.492% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| beta | 8.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:5.49%=EXTREME
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.50
Upside
-5.2%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.7; weakest: Insider at 3.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Momentum at 6.7, and Value at 6.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.0, Technical at 4.9, and Catalyst at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profitability
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 8% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Loan Book Concentration
Trip ifNYC multifamily share of loans exceeds 85%.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 8% of market cap over 90 days.
- P5Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 20%.