Value
4.7/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.6 |
| p ocf | 4.8 |
- ▸P/OCF: 23.0x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
ALX · Why this verdict
Why Alexander's (ALX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alexander's has high margins and stable rent, but 61% of income comes from one tenant, Bloomberg, and the $251.62 price is well above the analyst target, leaving no margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Bloomberg accounts for 61% of net operating income, above the 40% threshold, so single-tenant churn dominates results. Bear case | The Bloomberg lease is renewed or its share of income falls below 55%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA tenant departure would hit cash flow immediately, with no diversification to absorb it. | ||
Margins of 79% and quarterly revenue steady at about $52M to $55M indicate stable lease income. Quality breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $52M. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 27% of net income, a quality red flag. | ||
The $251.62 price is above the $163.20 analyst target by about 35.1%, leaving no upside to target. Targets | Price falls toward the target or targets rise. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPositive momentum and a breakout setup may continue to lift the stock. | ||
Price-to-operating-cash-flow of 47.3x is rich, and a yield trap warning flags that the high yield is unsafe. Valuation breakdown | Cash flow growth brings the multiple below 35x. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA rich multiple means little cushion if cash flow dips. | ||
Short interest is 14% and all properties sit in New York City, a single geographic market. Key risks | Short interest falls below 10%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA local real estate downturn or regulatory change hits every asset at once. | ||
Bloomberg accounts for 61% of net operating income, above the 40% threshold, so single-tenant churn dominates results.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The Bloomberg lease is renewed or its share of income falls below 55%.
CounterA tenant departure would hit cash flow immediately, with no diversification to absorb it.
Margins of 79% and quarterly revenue steady at about $52M to $55M indicate stable lease income.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $52M.
CounterFree cash flow is only 27% of net income, a quality red flag.
The $251.62 price is above the $163.20 analyst target by about 35.1%, leaving no upside to target.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price falls toward the target or targets rise.
CounterPositive momentum and a breakout setup may continue to lift the stock.
Price-to-operating-cash-flow of 47.3x is rich, and a yield trap warning flags that the high yield is unsafe.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash flow growth brings the multiple below 35x.
CounterA rich multiple means little cushion if cash flow dips.
Short interest is 14% and all properties sit in New York City, a single geographic market.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 10%.
CounterA local real estate downturn or regulatory change hits every asset at once.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 6.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 3.1 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 107%
- ▸Strong margins: 82%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 39% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 9.3 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.1 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 1.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.4 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:95d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-4.8=NEGATIVE
- REIT_TENANT_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-4.83
Upside
-34.7%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-4.8=NEGATIVE, REIT_TENANT_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -4.83 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 7.0, and Peer rank at 7.0; the weakest are Sentiment at 3.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3, and Value at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -4.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Single Tenant Concentration
Trip ifBloomberg share of net operating income exceeds 70%.
- P2High Margin Stable Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $50M.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 50%.
- P4Rich Cash Flow Multiple
Trip ifPrice-to-operating-cash-flow rises above 55x.
- P5Short Interest Nyc Exposure
Trip ifShort interest exceeds 20% of float.