Value
6.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
ALVO · Why this verdict
Why Alvotech (ALVO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alvotech offers 35% upside to the analyst target and a recovering oversold chart, but declining revenue, cash burn and repeated earnings misses keep quality below the floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst target of $6.26 is about 34.7% above the $4.65 price with a reward-to-risk of 3.2. Targets | Price moves toward the target as earnings stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light at 5 analysts and the stock is 49% below its high. | ||
Revenue is declining about 39% and free cash flow is about -25% of revenue. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive and cash burn narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue has been lumpy, from $167M down to $106M, so declines may continue. | ||
Earnings missed in three of the last four quarters, including a 30% miss in August 2026. Earnings | EPS beats at the November 11 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single large beat in March 2026 shows results are erratic. | ||
RSI of 30 with the price above its 200-day average and rising on-balance volume points to an oversold stock in an uptrend. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 45 with price holding above the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA break below the 200-day average would turn the setup into a confirmed downtrend. | ||
Quality scores 3.4 versus a 4.0 floor and no competitive moat is identified. Bear case | Quality score rises above 4.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOperating and net margin scores are zero, so near-term improvement is unlikely. | ||
The analyst target of $6.26 is about 34.7% above the $4.65 price with a reward-to-risk of 3.2.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the target as earnings stabilize.
CounterCoverage is light at 5 analysts and the stock is 49% below its high.
Revenue is declining about 39% and free cash flow is about -25% of revenue.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and cash burn narrows.
CounterQuarterly revenue has been lumpy, from $167M down to $106M, so declines may continue.
Earnings missed in three of the last four quarters, including a 30% miss in August 2026.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats at the November 11 report.
CounterA single large beat in March 2026 shows results are erratic.
RSI of 30 with the price above its 200-day average and rising on-balance volume points to an oversold stock in an uptrend.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 45 with price holding above the 200-day average.
CounterA break below the 200-day average would turn the setup into a confirmed downtrend.
Quality scores 3.4 versus a 4.0 floor and no competitive moat is identified.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0.
CounterOperating and net margin scores are zero, so near-term improvement is unlikely.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 8.1 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -25% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -39%
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 59%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
3.60
Upside
+38.0%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -50% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.3<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 7.1 and asymmetric R:R of 3.60.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.1, Value at 6.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.4, Momentum at 3.3, and Quality at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.60 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst upside to target falls below 10% from current 34.7%.
- P2Declining Revenue Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below -40% of revenue.
- P3Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Oversold Uptrend
Trip ifPrice falls more than 15% below the current $4.65.
- P5Sub Floor Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from current 3.4.